The Normandy format and the imitation of the Maidan

«Нормандский формат» и имитация Майдана

© fakty.uaProtests by radical nationalists against the “surrender” in Kiev started the day before serving Zelensky at a meeting in the “Normandy format”. Observers, including the Ukrainian and Russian experts have already called them sluggish and few. This is not quite true.Of course, by the standards of Paris or Hong Kong protests, day poroshenkovsko of the Kiev “Veche” and night blockade people Biletsky presidential office on Bankova — baby talk on the lawn. But independence, snesshy Yanukovychalso did not differ in Paris or Hong Kong with their sheer numbers. If we compare with the events of six years ago, the picture day rally poroshenkovtsev, filmed by a drone, gives the number of protesters every ten or fifteen more than the gathered Hireto boost “onizhedetey.”

Official Ukrainian estimates of the number protesters against Zelensky give a figure of 2,000 a day and 500-600 a night. Don’t know, have them do 300: Bankova street is short and narrow, it is 500 people seem to five thousand. And here’s a picture from the Independence square (filmed by drone), suggests that the number of protesters was two times greater than declared (not two, but three to five thousand people). By the way, in March last year, during antiperistaltic performances, the Ukrainian police and the media, twice less than present, the crowd gathered in the same place, was estimated at 2-3 thousand people.

However, no matter whether gathered opponents Zelensky on the streets of Kiev three or five thousand people. First, even bred their people (as the experience of the overthrow of Yanukovych) is sufficient for the organization of the Maidan. Second, to organize the Maidan, they are clearly not going to. While that street performances are a means of pressure on Zelensky and his master Kolomoisky to force them to make concessions in favor of various oligarchic groups and to accelerate the downgrade Zelensky. The task of the overthrow of the government is not worth it.

If 8-9 August an attempt was made to collect real independence and move towards the overthrow of the government Zelensky, the scene was not one Poroshenko and some zadnekamernye from “the Voice” and “Fatherland.” Shoulder to shoulder with him would have stood and tried to wrest from him the leadership of Tymoshenko and Vakarchuk. And the Nazis Biletsky/Avakov would come under the President’s Office is not a separate column, but was joined in the Maidan crowd, I would organize it (as the main striking force), impose its agenda and its leadership.

Right-wing radicals are well aware of the fact that the team Zelensky prepared for the Paris meeting is absolutely unacceptable for Russia and DNR/LNR proposal. They understand that max can hope for Ukraine in this approach, the formal conservation of the Minsk agreements. Kiev is clearly not ready to make commitments for their early implementation, and Zelensky (who promised the voters the world) is not torn to the honorable post of gravedigger of the Minsk process.

Team Zelensky initially, when immediately after his inauguration demanded an immediate meeting in the Normandy format, made a mistake, hoping that France, Germany and the United States will actively support the intention of Kiev to revise the content of the Minsk agreements. They believed that Zelensky will be able to “sell” people, the more successful a negotiator, which, if not made immediately, the new agreement, managed to break out of the loop “Minsk humiliation.” But everything turned out exactly the opposite. And now Zelensky necessary, on the one hand, to demonstrate a tough stance, and on the other to prevent the collapse of the Minsk process as no negotiations on new terms to keep them not, and DNR/LNR has officially stated claim to all the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions — the rates have increased.

His trying, not without success, to catch the Ukrainian nationalists. Knowing that Zelensky is nothing to negotiate and nothing will concede that he needs only more or less beautiful PR picture for the voter, they’re throwing a tantrum. Now, returned without a major breakthrough, the President will look caved under the pressure of radicals, which, of course, will reduce its electoral support (past fall rating Zelensky was a time when he was clearly inferior to the demands of the radical).

Moreover, they also try, a little shake of his situation to force the President to publicly explain and swear that I have not lost a single inch “of Ukrainian land” (including the Crimea), which in any case will not agree to the conditions of Minsk that will achieve undisputed control over Ukraine’s border, no Amnesty to military officials and DNR/LNR will not, there will be no special status, etc. In General, it will try to make once again publicly reaffirm poroshenkovskoy strategy, and to make it clear under the pressure of radicals.

It is clear that the result will be another crash rating Zelensky (not fatal, but painful). If the rating will fall to 35-40% before the New year, the team Zelensky/Kolomoisky for the sake of stabilizing the situation in the country will have to make serious concessions to the oligarchic groups. Otherwise, the spring can reach 15% rating, and this is a direct path to the real (not operetta) coup.

You can certainly go the way of the crackdown. But Zelensky has no enough power resource to establish personal dictatorship. This resource is Avakov. But he still should be able to negotiate. Then it is to be hoped that he will not betray, turning at the last moment on the side of opponents. Finally, it is ridiculous to believe that Avakov will seize power for Zelensky and withdrew. Rather, it will make the President own puppet.

In favor of Zelensky’s playing of the IMF statement, which seemed to have agreed to open for Ukraine a credit line of 5 billion dollars. for four years (i.e. until the end of his presidency Zelensky), though not yet issued, this decision officially. This is a signal to all the Soros fosterling in Ukrainian politics (and they are there 90% for the higher and middle positions) that the West is on the side of Zelensky. That is, “people with good persons, three higher education and five foreign languages” is not to support the rebellion against Zelensky, and the usual Nazi coup the West is clearly not going to subscribe.

In his favor is also conducting secret negotiations with the Ukrainian oligarchs Kolomoisky. But here all is ambiguous, since one could not provide Igor termination of his criminal prosecution in the United States and Europe.

Finally, Zelensky can get Putin’s support of Him and Merkel in a favorable pictures of the summit and the relevant press statements. But for this he will have to persuade their negotiating partners that the continuation of the eclectic Board Zelensky, covering the unfolding big fight of the oligarchs for control of the last crumbs of Ukrainian life in Russia, France and Germany better than Frank (nazaretova) war of the Ukrainian oligarchic families in the format of “all against all”.

In addition, all these measures playing in favor Zelensky (even if they can be realized), are temporary and unable to stop the drop in its rating under the growing pressure of the opposition of the oligarchs Kolomoisky and right-wing radicals. In the last two or three months formed the next Nazi-oligarchic consensus. Its leaders have consistently demonstrated Zelensky, being able to sweep it at any time (and no one will come out to defend him) that the security forces he does not control that they have more than enough marginalitet to paralyze life in the capital and militants to storm the presidential office.

They already can do, but not in a hurry, because in the future Zelensky will be weaker, will lose popularity, and domestic and foreign costs from the coup, so will have to decline. In addition, the overthrow Zelensky is not an end in itself. Enough to control his oligarchic group suppressed their oligarchic opponents.

There is a struggle for power and resource. Zelensky in this fight the “big boys” is only a tool, and every day less fit for consumption. In the “Norman format,” he saw his chance (his Toulon, your the Rue d ‘ Arcole bridge, your Austerlitz). But for now, the current situation resembles not even Waterloo (epic all the same battle), and the shameful desertion of Napoleon (without an army) from Egypt or a similar flight from Russia.Rostislav Ishchenko

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