© Facebook, Viktor SkarshevskyUkrainian economist Viktor Skarshevsky cited the official figures of the Treasury talking about the complete failure of execution of budget revenues in the current year and projected budget Outlook for 2020 godgory-2019: minus 71 billion UAH
Fresh Treasury data indicate that problems with the fulfillment of state budget revenues is exacerbated by:
— the budget is not executed for the fourth consecutive month in August.
In November, the revenue plan was not fulfilled by 8.6% or minus 8.4 billion UAH.
Since the beginning of 2019, the state budget shortfall of 56 billion UAH of planned revenues.
If you subtract the may “gift” from the national Bank (listed in the budget by 17 billion more than was projected in the budget — by results of activity for 2012-2017), the shortfalls in revenues will amount to 71 billion.A huge failure is observed in the revenues from CUSTOMS — minus UAH 35.7 billion from the plan for 11 months of 2019 (minus 11% from the plan).
Moreover, the revenue from customs in January-November of 2019 are below actual revenues for the same period 2018 — minus 19.6 billion UAH.
The consequences of 15% strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate due to inflows of speculative non-resident capital market government bonds since the beginning of the year plus $4.1 billion.
In November 2019, revenues from customs was short by 3.8 billion UAH, than in October 2019, and 7.1 billion lower than a year ago in November 2018. But what about the results from the promised fight against smuggling? The question is rhetorical.
The expected shortfall of state budget revenues in 2019 — minus 80 billion.
There is every reason to expect that the budget 2020 will repeat the fate of the budget of 2019, as it provides increased income to 150 billion UAH (+16%) compared to the expected revenues in 2019. The expected growth of the economy in 2020 is 3.7% and inflation of 5.5% is an unattainable figure.
By the way, budget failures occur on the background of the brave government reports GDP growth.
However, with industrial production declining for the 5th month in a row, and processing industry — 6th.