The transit of gas. What a Christmas surprise to get Ukraine and Europe?

Транзит газа. Какой новогодний сюрприз получат Украина и Европа?

© RIA Novosti, stringer Gas issue in Stockholm and other obligations of Ukraine and Russia to each other behind the scenes discussed are much wider than Zelensky and Putin told the world after the meeting, “Norman Quartet” on December 9-10. The most pressing issue – the transit of gas from Russia to Europe through Ukraine.Meanwhile, in Vienna, Gazprom and the company, which will be instead of “Naftogaz” independent operator of the Ukrainian gas transport system, trying to find a mutually beneficial consensus. Now Ukraine puts extremely high tariffs for the transit.

Why come and can come to hand, reflects Valentin Zemlyansky — Director of energy programs of the Center for world economy and international relations of NAS of Ukraine.

The Risks Of “Naftogaz”

“Naftogaz” requires “Gazprom” to revise the tariff for transit of gas set in March 2013, and at the same time claim to compensation of $12.5 billion in lost benefits. This amount, together with approximately $7 billion fine, which the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine imposed on “Gazprom”, the unrealistic, the analyst believes. The decision of the AMC is not that other, as a form of political pressure on the opponent.

In addition, the analyst recalled, “Gazprom” should pay “Naftogaz” of $3 billion for gas transit according to the decision of the Stockholm arbitration court.

“Even the 3 billion very controversial because the arbitration did not take the decision, but the court never issued a verdict on the appeal of “Gazprom” for the transit part,” the expert remarked.

True, the leadership of “Naftogaz”, and Zelensky are ready to take debts gas. But in Stockholm are other lawsuits between the gas companies. “Naftogaz” admits that all of this carries certain financial risks for the company in the amount of $2 billion At least NAK write about it in their brochures when placing Eurobonds. So the big question on transit was a sufficient number of sub-questions and discussions of zero and non-zero option” — analyzed Zemlyansky.To assess the scale of mutual debt between Russia and Ukraine, we should not forget that in the High court of London lies the case for Ukrainian loan of $3 billion taken in 2013, Russia has fled the Maidan President Viktor Yanukovych. These billions due to delays in payments became $4.5 billion.

Through The Eyes Of “Gazprom”

Vladimir Zelensky said that, most likely, a new transit contract to be signed before the New year. But Moscow wants to sign for one year, and Kiev for 10 years. Energoekspert suggests that they will select the middle option — 5 years. But too not the fact. If you look at the situation through the eyes of “Gazprom”, it becomes clear that he had 10 years constant problems with transit of energy resources through Ukrainian pipeline.

“For the Russian Federation (long-term contracts. — Ed.) sufficiently high economic risks. The decision will be strictly political in nature and will be made solely by the President of the Russian Federation. As “Gazprom” and the economic bloc of the government of the Russian Federation categorically against signing a long agreement,” — said the analyst.

However, he says, a dead-end question of the terms of the contract and the rates on transit still out of place. The volumes of pumping Russian gas via the Ukrainian pipeline — 40-60 billion cubic meters, which are likely to be revised.

There is no European support

While conditions remain open: what will happen with the operator GTS, who will act as a business partner of Gazprom on conditions to function this operator, if the consortium, who it will include and who will control the Ukrainian operator. Looks suspicious suspension of the European Union on above mentioned issues and questions. Because of the fact that the EU is ready to buy gas on the Eastern Ukrainian-Russian border, says Ukraine only. Position of the European Union on this issue is still not announced.

“None of the European companies appealed to “Gazprom” with the desire to buy gas on the Eastern border of Ukraine. This means that in principle the European Union is satisfied with the termination of transit. Neither of which European support and there can not be” — see Zemlyansky.You work first, and we’ll see

“Gazprom” is responsible for the transit of blue fuel to consumers in the EU. Why? The company “Ukrtransgaz”, engaged in the transportation, delivery and storage of gas, gets gas at the Russian-Ukrainian border in Russian territory there are gas metering station, and then forwards the resource to the Western border of Ukraine. In Uzhgorod “Ukrtransgaz” passes gas exporter “Gazprom” and “Gazexport”. And it delivers gas from Uzhgorod to the Slovak city of Velke kapusany.

Kiev also intends to redesign the scheme and to take responsibility for the supply of gas to Europe. But, said Valentin Zemlyansky, none of eurometropola not expressed a willingness to work in this mode. The default is: they say, let Ukraine will first create a independent operator in the pipes, and we’ll see how it will function.

The transit will…

“It would be logical if the current contract between “Naftogaz” and “Gazprom” was prolonged until the beginning of the work of the operator of the Ukrainian gas transportation system, called the company OO “OHTSU”. It needs to be a signatory to the contract with Gazprom, its head Sergey Makogon should participate in the negotiations with Moscow, instead of “Naftogaz”. But Mr. Makohon we in the delegation of the negotiators do not see” — said the expert.

Thus, the issue of transit is escalating in spite of the optimism Zelensky, who create “OHTA” just need to throw out the process the top managers of “Naftogaz” Andrei KOBOLEV and Yuri Vitrenko, who long ago showed that the issue of transit are not interested in them, and they with “Naftogaz” will earn the other way. The crisis may come exactly under the New year, when transit will be suspended.Viktor Melnikov

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