American “Game with Luke” coming to the crucial point
The closer the timing of the signing of the Treaty on deepening integration between Russia and Belarus, scheduled for December 8, in Washington sharply intensified attempts to disrupt this event.
The Wall Street Journal in an article dated November 5, writes that the fear of “absorption” of Belarus and the subsequent change in the balance of power in Europe, Western governments are going to support “authoritarian and arbitrary” the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. He was echoed by Bloomberg: “As the European Union and the United States “are trying to wrest the ex-Soviet Republic from the shadows of the Kremlin. “Human rights are not going anywhere, however, it is possible to talk in private”, – said on this occasion Director of the Department of Eastern Europe of the US state Department Bradley Freden.
Through such representations, including those brought to the Belarusian authorities through informal channels, in Minsk there is the illusion that the West is ready to completely abandon the subversive policy against the current leadership of the country, including its President Alexander Lukashenko. If only the Belarusians were not used for further rapprochement with Moscow. From this stems the many angry Lukashenka’s escapades last time against Russia, as if he deliberately provokes Moscow for the harsh response, and then explain your reluctance to sign certain documents about the integration. The calculation is apparently based on the fact that the West compensate. Indeed, the Washington promised. Only not only what he promised, such as Kiev or the Syrian Kurds.
In Minsk there are certain circles who are responsible for the formation of foreign policy, particularly the foreign Ministry, which seem not see all the intricacies of the game of America against Belarus or deliberately misleading their President.
All American doctrines to take the task of Belarus “on the content” is regarded as unreal. The leitmotif of the other – to split the relations of Minsk with Russia and, like Ukraine, try to use it as a tool against Moscow. The prosperity of the Belarusian Americans care about in the least. They even at hand, if it occurs, the chaos that can always be attributed to “authoritarian regime”. And to act in the chaos of the American political strategists – masters. In their calculations the last time they really avoid to speak about the future fate of President Lukashenka. However, there is no doubt: for Americans it is a “very short-lived companion”, from which they will shed at the first opportunity, and at the same time and those in his entourage who are considered insufficiently loyal to the West.
As the main U.S. strategy towards Belarus remains in force developed by the Center for European policy analysis (CEPA) and the Jamestown Foundation (The Jamestown Foundation) strategy, cynically named one of its authors “Game with Luke”. The meaning of “game” is that under the guise of normalization of bilateral relations to establish direct contacts with Lukashenka’s entourage, primarily from among the security forces and then using them to remove the President from power.
The impact of these organizations by the fact that they (apparently on instructions from the White house) almost monopolized the political contacts of the American side with Belarus. In RB this objectively subversive force is perceived almost as a “private lobby” in the United States, what studious says the President of the Belarusian foreign Ministry headed by Minister Vladimir Makei. The staff of CEPA and The Jamestown Foundation , such as former senior Pentagon official Michael carpenter, former chief of the US army in Europe General Ben Hodges – run regularly between the two countries, accepted at the highest level, have extensive contacts in the political and military circles. Hodges, in particular, has made considerable efforts to establish a “personal friendship” with the Secretary General of the security Council of Belarus Stanislav Zasem General. The last Americans see as a potential favorite.
It is noteworthy that the American participants in this dialogue their views especially do not hide: apparently, based on the fact that through the Lukashenka’s inner circle, the filter will hardly leak any “undesirable” information.
So, personally attended by the Belarusian President M. carpenter says: “the Political system in Belarus – a dictatorship, and state officials have no desire to be open politically. Let’s be Frank – it is a reality. But if you look at those whom we may call the governmental nomenclature, some of them would like to have greater autonomy in their field, and they can become something of a “partner” of the US who are trying to help them build self-reliance.” By the way, the carpenter first has named the operation against Minsk “Game with Luke”.
In a recent interview, carpenter argued: “the West should learn the lesson of what can and what cannot be achieved through isolation”. Here in Cuba, the isolation of the Castro regime only strengthened the Castro supporters rallied around him and ruled with an iron hand. In Belarus, the Americans also failed to achieve their goals through isolation. However, this does not mean, says carpenter, that they should take the existing dictatorship only because I hope for improvement. He confessed: “We need to apply smart, based on strictly defined conditions, a policy of carrot and stick with a clear understanding of what we want to achieve”. That is, all the assurances about overcoming the isolation of Belarus “Game with Luke”, involving the removal from power of its incumbent, not canceled.
Ben Hodges at every opportunity likes to talk about the military threat allegedly threatening Belarus from Russia. USA, as he claims, ready to come to her aid, but as a very optional: “We are not asking Belarus to choose between East and West is a false choice that they should not do. But we can compete there in a manner that will allow a very slow but steady normalization of relations with Belarus that will lead to their further ability to become more sovereign and independent”.
Directly before the forthcoming signing of new agreements between Russia and Belarus CEPA and The Jamestown Foundation have prepared “fresh revelation.”
CEPA made a report “Choose whether Belarus the West?”. The report stresses that the upcoming “convergence” between Moscow and Minsk is in contradiction with the plans for the normalization of U.S.-Belarusian relations, including by improving the representation to the ambassadorial level. It is already clear allusion to the fact that in the case of the signing in Moscow of the integration package is the process of restoring relations between the U.S. and Belarus will be frozen.
The report’s authors believe that “contradictory behavior” of Minsk stems from the main goal of “Europe’s last dictator Lukashenko” – to remain in power. However, they emphasize that in any case, without “the support of the Kremlin” is not feasible. Consequently, despite all its throwing, the Belarusian President has a vital interest in Russia.
This implies that the decline of Moscow’s influence in Belarus involves the removal of Lukashenko from power. The report States that Lukashenka can hardly be removed from his post by “any Maidan revolution” like the one that happened in Ukraine. The West also don’t need to be naive about the prospects “of liberal democracy” in the country. Therefore, to flirt with the West, Lukashenko should be treated with caution. However, the involvement of the West in Belarus (cultural ties, dialogue with society) in the long term is useful. For example, the arrival in Minsk of the Ambassador of the United States “can facilitate contacts” with the opposition to Lukashenka. This is the development of the main provisions of the “Games with Luke”.
Jamestown Foundation for upcoming events has also prepared a report. It’s called “the West and Turkey: mutual discovery of each other again”. On 21 November, the report will be discussed at a special conference in Washington. Not an ordinary event, it should participate “curator” of Minsk in the us administration, the Deputy assistant Secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affairs, George Kent and Deputy Minister of foreign Affairs of Belarus Oleg Kravchenko. Last from 2008 to 2014, he was charge d’affaires of Belarus in the United States and, in fact, is the chief confidant of Americans in Belarus. Via Kravchenko Washington goes to such key figures of the Belarusian political scene as V. Makei and V. Zas.
At stated at the conference on 21 November, the themes and titles of the reports shows that Minsk is addressed to two main messages: “Belarusian identity implies belonging to the West” and “America will help”. The overall focus of the event is to energize and stimulate existing in certain circles of the leadership of Belarus in the mood to refuse further integration with Russia. The main discussion platform with the participation Dzh. Kent and O. Kravchenko is planned on the theme “relations between the United States and Belarus and rapprochement”. The main “carrots” will be distributed here.
It is hoped that these fake seduction won’t reverse the process of further integration of the two brotherly peoples. However, I must note something else: in terms of countering “antiintegration” activity of the American expert community on the Russian side there is nothing comparable. Americans may not be able to break the “centuries-old relations of Russian and Belarusian”, which are on a higher level than when Moscow and Kiev. However, to make confusion and chaos to the detriment of both peoples they are able.Dmitry Minin