The economic growth of the United States is going to be of the order of 20 % in the third and fourth quarters, said Sunday the economic adviser of the White House, despite a slowdown of the recovery related to the outbreak of the pandemic COVID-19.
“I do not deny that some of these States, hotspots (of the pandemic), moderate recovery. But all in all, the picture is very positive and I always think that the recovery is V-shaped is in place,” said Larry Kudlow on CNN.
The recovery in the so-called “V” refers to a strong rebound in the economy following a deep recession.
“I always think that there will be a growth rate of 20 % during the third and fourth quarters,” he added.
The american administration should publish on Thursday its first estimate of gross domestic product for the second quarter, which was marked by the shutdown of the economy at the height of the health crisis in an attempt to stem the sars coronavirus.
The international monetary Fund has estimated that for this period (April-June), GDP contracted by 37 % in annualized terms.
Larry Kudlow has recognized that the pace of the recovery could debate, but it has put forward economic indicators that signal the recovery, citing in particular the bond marked in retail sales in may and June, as well as the strong recovery in the automotive sector.
The u.s. central Bank, however, shown cautious to date on the pace of the rebound for the second half of the year.
For 2020, it expects a contraction of 6.5% of GDP.
The United States entered into recession as early as February. To mitigate the impact of the economic shock caused by the health crisis, the Congress had approved the end of march a plan to revive the titanic 2200 billion dollars (“Cares Act”).
It included the distribution of cheques to Americans and 349 billion for a fund dedicated to small and medium-sized enterprises.
A second aid plan of nearly $ 500 billion had been completed at the end of April.
The government has also granted unemployment benefits of $ 600 per week. But this measure will expire on 31 July.
Democrats and republicans have been arguing for weeks on a new aid plan that would extend the unemployment allowance.
The us Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, insisted Sunday on Fox news on the fact that the amount should be lower.
“It would simply not be fair to use taxpayers’ money to pay more people to stay home if they worked and had a job,” he said.
The administration Trump has proposed an allocation representing 70% of the last salary received.
Despite the differences, Mr. Mnuchin said that he was optimistic about a second stimulus package, adding that Senate republicans planned to introduce a bill on Monday.
The time is short, only 100 days to the presidential election.
The minister of Donald Trump has once again stressed that the aim was to help small businesses the most vulnerable as well as unemployed persons.
When asked about a possible new tax cuts or a reduction in social security charges requested by the republican chairman, Steven Mnuchin said, “The payments of money direct are a much faster way to give everyone a tax cut, and it is much faster than the reduction of social charges”.