Earlier this week, the president declined to confirm that he would accept the November 3 election results. The reactions were quick and even Republicans tried to calm things down, promising a peaceful transition of power.
The words of Donald Trump, the omnipresent demonstrations and the particular context of the pandemic contribute to the climate of suspicion in which the 2020 presidential election is bathed. If we also fear electoral fraud or the interference of foreign powers, I add today my a grain of salt by evoking an unlikely scenario.
With favorable polls, Joe Biden is leading the race. We know, however, that we cannot rule out another victory for Donald Trump, even if he once again lost the popular vote.
A tie on November 3
A victory by a narrow margin of one of the two candidates would very likely lead to protests. I can hardly imagine the turmoil that would result from a tie in the Electoral College. If the probabilities of arriving at a total of 269 electors for each candidate appear minimal, they cannot be ignored.
Try to imagine the tensions felt by the teams of Trump and Biden if a similar result were achieved on November 3. In this event, Democrats would be the most worried. The election would then be played in the House of Representatives. No strategist wants to get there.
It's up to the House to decide
Where is the problem ? Are the Democrats not in the majority in this House? Yes ! But during the vote that would determine the winner, it is not the 435 representatives who will speak.
At this point in time, each of the 50 states may well have only one vote. There would then no longer be any distinction between California and Montana, which are at the antipodes of the representation set according to demographic weight.
It's a safe bet that in the event of a tie, Donald Trump would keep his post. It is possible to envision that he would win the vote of 26 (under Republican control) of the 50 states.
Democrats win a considerable number of representatives in the House because they win in populous west coast or northeastern states, but Republicans win in more states in total.
As you regularly see, the American system is complex and involves a significant number of delicate situations. While the polarization is at its height and many are worried, a victory for Donald Trump obtained under these circumstances would bring water to the mill of the 51% of Americans who want the abolition of the electoral college.
The scenario put forward here is far-fetched, but it nevertheless allows us to present the intricacies of the system and the dilapidated nature of the electoral college. We bet that nothing will change in the near future, if only because the Republicans will oppose any changes that would constantly relegate them to the opposition.