Ukraine and the census – the government is afraid that the figures can be shocking

Independent Ukraine has brought irreversible demographic losses

Украина и перепись – власть боится, что цифры могут шокировать

The Ukrainian authorities, when there is no money, and recognize that the people running the country, do not want, are willing to fake an important tool of forecasting of socio-economic and demographic processes – population census.

The basic principle of the census, its regularity disturbed in Ukraine for a long time. Last count of people carried out in 2001 and counted 48,457 thousand people. Since then, in all modes (Yushchenko, Yanukovych, Poroshenko) population no one was interested.

After the election of a new President ze-team, promised to conduct a full census in 2020, providing at 3,43 bln. And then Minister Dmitry Dubilet said that the census will hold in electronic form – with the help of mobile operators and sociological research. The amount of 3.43 billion. reduced to 1.4 billion, then the Minister promised that he will further relieve the budget, meet with a census of 400 million UAH.

Savings! What is wrong it would seem?

However Dubilet innovator. He decided to rewrite the population, and owners of cellular phones to collect information from mobile operators about the number of users and insert data into a mathematical model. In the end, says Dubilet, count people. “These data,” he says, “may be even more accurate than in a traditional census”, saying that not everyone will open the door to those who conducts a survey.

That is, the Minister has proposed to replace the census with an approximate population estimate. And it became clear that, first, will be behind millions of rural residents deprived of mobile connection. Second, the sample in this approach is likely to be unreliable.And how to ensure representativeness, given that the statistical indicators in Ukraine are outdated almost twenty years?

But most importantly, in this formulation, the question of the meaning of the census as a fairly thin instrument of governance disappears. No one knows how many in Ukraine, men and women, what is their age, how many families and children. To find out the number of the unemployed, security of people’s livelihoods, their level of education, ethnicity, language preferences (e.g., they communicate in Russian or Ukrainian language?). People in the country just count on their heads, like a flock.

It is a profanation of the census, which, according to the recommendations of the UN, each country is preferably carried out every 10 years.

Apparently, the government doesn’t want people to know the real numbers, which may come as a shock.

In 2001 the population of Ukraine accounted for 48,457 thousand people, whereas in 1989 the Ukrainian population of 51,452 million. The evaluation of the state statistics, in 2018, the population declined to 42.1 million And economist Larisa Shesler, based on the number consumed in the country of bread, came to the conclusion that the real population of Ukraine in 2017 was only… 24.5 million people. Shesler shared the 1 million 123 tonnes of bread produced in 2017, the consumption rate (46 kg). By the way, in Europe eat more poles, for example, consume 56,7 kg of bread a year, the people of France and Germany, 54 kg/year.

Independent Ukraine has brought irreversible loss of the population. Talking about it, and the data of experts of the Economic discussion club, which includes former Ministers of economy and Finance of Ukraine, their deputies, well-known economists, scientists, senior managers, the annual production of bread in Ukraine from 2000 to 2017 has decreased from 2.5 million tons to 1.1 million. Of course, with the spread of poverty bread in Ukraine began to eat less, but compared to the appreciation of other products (meat, fish, vegetables, fruits) it is still the most popular product.

With “bread” indicator will not argue, but we must take into account labour migrants, which, according to unofficial data, Ukraine 7-9 million (!). And even with the workers, the population of Ukraine does not exceed 33.5 million today instead of the 51.5 million in 1989. Scary numbers if you think that did to people!

There are still expert assessment given in 2017 former Minister of labor and social policy Mykhaylo Papiev, said that, according to the most optimistic calculations of the Institute of demography of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the country’s population is 32 million. For the authorities to recognize such losses of the population – as a sharp knife.

And some figures for comparison.

Ukraine recently celebrated the “day of memory of victims of Holodomor” – the hungry years, the falls after the Civil war (1921-1923), during collectivization (1932-1933), after the great Patriotic war. The exact number of deaths in 1932-1933 is unknown. Experts INED talking about 2.2 million people, and the Institute of demography and social studies. Ptukha of NAS of Ukraine said that the demographic losses of USSR in 1932-1933 amounted to 3 million 917,8 thousand. (RSFSR lost 3 million 264,6 thousand, Kazakhstan – 1 million of 258.2 million). If you take the basis of this data, we see that independent Ukraine has lost at least 17 million people (the population of the Netherlands)! On “East of the aggressor,” such losses are not written off. But there were periods of population growth: during the period from 1933 to 1940 the number of inhabitants of the USSR has increased from 32 to 41 million.

Counting the number of the population is important primarily from the point of view of the economy. To 2019-2021 years have the most significant payments of Ukraine on loans from the Navy, world Bank, EBRD and other international financial institutions. And the state and regional budgets are formed based on population. They laid the costs of the state program of social assistance, subventions and beneficiaries, medical and so on. When people smaller than it actually is, officials at all levels are enriched with “dead souls”, using established corruption schemes.

Will be a big scandal when, say, it turns out that the number of pensioners, Chernobyl veterans and recipients of social assistance in Ukraine is much less than drawn on paper. International organizations will lower Ukraine in the ranking of corruption is even lower, and murderous decline in the working age population will sooner or later lead to default. And what will happen then with the promises of the new President to achieve fast economic growth?Vladimir Poimanov

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