Ukraine creates a powerful cruise missile, which has raised serious concern in Russia. The Kremlin is preparing a new provocation — on the fronts, including the sea of Azov, and in peaceful territories within Ukraine.
About the new Ukrainian weapons, how to resist Russian aggression, and why is the system created by Vladimir Putin, in the first part of an interview with “Apostrophe” said the head of the research Center for army, conversion and disarmament, the military expert VALENTIN BADRAK.
— What do you think, why Russia provocations in the sea of Azov? Ukrainian court delays, 16 kilometers from the Ukrainian coast, conducting exercises?
— When we are dealing with the Kremlin, we are always dealing with a mixed version. On the one hand, the Kremlin is probing the situation, how would the measurements of the reaction of Ukraine. And here you have to understand that any weakening of the Ukrainian side instantly used in order to build on their success in that direction or area.
As for the sea, the situation is very complicated because since the launch of the Kerch bridge we’re dealing with revitalization, aggressive position in the marine segment relations. The Russians, on the one hand, testing that we have at sea at all possible, as there we can lead and how we in the future will be able to simulate our response. Especially in the context of emergence of information in the ASM (anti-ship cruise missile), which in Ukraine is created and that can next year to appear. It is a powerful mobile tool that can be used for the coast guard, for the distance of 280-300 km to hit any ships. Of course, this is all very concerned about the Russian side.
There are economic reason, economic experts are talking about astronomical figures of our losses in circulation, which is hampered due to the aggressive Maritime policy of Moscow. And, of course, the human factor always plays a significant role. That is, grabbing the Ukrainians, arresting, manipulating behind the framework of international law, the Russian side is trying to solve a number of tasks, including high politics. Stage is very cool relations between the US and Russia forcing Russia to conduct an aggressive action where it can scare the flights of their aircraft near NATO ships. To come up with some podbrasyvanii things in the Baltic region, to send messages that can be aggression against the Baltic States, and test the response of NATO. And, of course, Russia’s extremely convenient Ukrainian ground. Russia keeps Ukraine as a laboratory, test site and to test their new weapons and messages to the West. In this case, I do not separate the situation of intimidation of Ukraine (including the preparation to the Ukrainian elections, and Russia will affect very seriously here) and a message to the West that, they say, “if a dialogue will not happen, we can conduct a very aggressive policy on the Ukrainian land.”
— That is, Russia is already using your strategy not only on land, we talked a lot, but at sea?
— A related situation. The Kremlin is always trying to maneuver and create a new one, I would even say creative things in his aggressive policy. It is through the destabilization in the country, by conducting a series of terrorist acts, murders, attacks against well-known people in Ukraine, such as, for example, the commander of the detachment of special forces of the Main intelligence Directorate of the defense Ministry (Maxim Shapoval, who was killed in Kiev in June 2017, “Apostrophe”). And nautical theme comes up now in Russia as self-sufficient about the impact on Kiev. It is clear that today we have problems with the ship part, we have not so quickly into the system, even boats. And even what we count on missile “mosquito” fleet is only the future. While Russia is very teasing situation when, for example, in Ochakovo built training center, marine corps base (for Ukraine with the help of the US Navy — “the Apostrophe”). A very active irritant for the Kremlin is that the Americans give us military boats. This all together creates a pretty serious irritants for the Kremlin and, accordingly, forces him to take this direction, for a “piece” in which they try to bite and to chew through any possible gaps.
— How Ukraine should respond to these provocations?
— Unfortunately, Ukraine is forced to react in accordance with their defence capabilities. The sea is the area that Ukraine has always been the weakest point even in financing. The Navy has always financed by a residual principle. When we even have something to do for the army in the maintenance of the Armed forces, the Navy has always been an outsider — in terms of views of Kiev on how to develop and how to Finance it. Of course, this is all reflected on the state of the Armed forces, including the human factor, that a lot of people defected to Russia and remained in the Crimea, and in different departments. There is not only military agencies, and border and special services, “alpha”, and so on. I will not elaborate on this, I can only say that Ukraine has a limited capacity of response and, as for me, they need to step up. In principle, this is now being done.
Valentin Badrak in the Studio Apostrophe TVФото: Daria Davydenko / Apostrophe
— To intensify cooperation with international partners?
— No, to intensify the introduction of anti-ship missiles. This is one of those psychological factors that would seriously affect the Kremlin’s policy in this area.
— This rocket is being developed in Ukraine?
— This missile developed in Ukraine. Moreover, have been quite successful shooting, now everything is moving to the state tests. Here takes part the whole team of companies under the leadership, not afraid of the words has already been legendary Kyiv design Bureau “Luch”, which developed a range of missiles. Most interesting is that in the long term can appear and cruise missile greater range — up to 1500 km — but in this case Ukraine would have to get approval from the International regime of control over missile technology, successfully negotiate on the international level. The Ukrainian side should be mix of work, need to use the podium of all international organizations, to use what little used.
This is a situation where not diplomats, not government officials convey some things, and when you go, including journalists, scientists, representatives of academic sector and explain, and talk about what the threat was to Russia what the consequences. It is very important for the Western world, because that’s where the civil sector has great opportunities of influence on the authorities. Accordingly, it can play a positive role in the development of the Ukrainian defense capability. Of course, here I have to agree with the policy of the President, once again we need to talk about the necessity of granting Ukraine military-technical assistance, but should probably move from just trying to get some boats or anti-tank systems to acquire technology, to jointly produce some serious things, preferably on the territory of Ukraine. Then we get a very serious political and economic support.
Because when politicians just say: “We are for Ukraine,” — that is one thing, but when a dozen or two dozen defense American, Western European companies will work in Ukraine on its territory to establish a joint weapons systems, new platforms, then the situation is quite different. The Russians will understand that this is a real support and the real situation of development of sector of high technologies. This is what is now very slack Russia itself.
— Expert Mikhail Samus talked about the fact that Ukraine should withdraw from the Treaty 2003 on the cooperation with Russia on using the sea of Azov. Is it worth doing and what are the results?
— I agree with my colleague, because some things are declarative. For example, the CIS output or exit from the Treaty of friendship with Russia. But this declarative nature very seriously has the mentality of Russians and those moments where the Kremlin bosses can wipe your hands and say that it’s all nonsense. A critical mass of negativity inside Russia towards Russian leaders is gradually growing. When she grows up, it’s hard to say, given the total control of secret services and propaganda machine over the brains of ordinary Russians. However, this process is.
— It is believed that the Russians perceive it this way: “And, behold enemies. Correctly our state says that Ukraine is the enemy. They commit such unfriendly acts”.
Here we have a very good follow historical facts. You can cite polls of 2008. About 70-75% of Russians consider Ukraine an enemy state — after the United States and Georgia. It was in 2008, when it was discussed on whether to give Ukraine a membership action plan (action Plan for NATO membership) or not to give. Now the situation is even worse. On the 2015 the Ukraine are considered hostile and were ready to support a war with it more than 80% of Russians. This suggests that the processing of the propaganda machine of the consciousness of the average Russian are very serious. We have seen in such a respected, serious people like Andrey Makarevich. As soon as he stood up for Ukraine, immediately began mass persecution and pressure.
We are now essentially dealing with a mini-USSR called “Russia”. The same nuclear weapons, the same system of total control over the citizen. When it started with disney, I immediately started to remember the situation with the letters, which were signed against Solzhenitsyn and so on. We have already passed in the twentieth century in the USSR. So serious the Russians, the intellectuals it is clearly seen on the surface, and of course they don’t agree with it. But they prefer to keep quiet for obvious reasons. Why make yourself a target if it is impossible to defeat this system? And here she is slowly rotting, falling apart, bursting at the seams, but Putin still holds the situation of total control by the security services. Virtually all of the “erasmusincoming” — all science, all journalism, all show business. Of course, we humanly need to be away from this, from the fact that Putin has created.
I think we here have to fight with all your might — I emphasize — at the level of society, including, not only at the level of establishing the defense, missiles, aircraft or drones. It is at the level of society to create some new opportunities. On the one hand, opportunities for positive — to show that we go to Europe freely, our young people may get education, to realize themselves and where he wants as he wants, and concluding that we are at the level of public Patriotic organizations should not allow the Kremlin-the Russian plague here, in our territory now.
Valentin Badrak in the Studio Apostrophe TVФото: Daria Davydenko / Apostrophe
— You said that the closer to the parliamentary and presidential elections in 2019, the more Russia will intervene. What strategy she choose?
I am confident that the strategy will be combined. On the one hand, Russia will need to discredit in the eyes of Ukrainians, the Ukrainian government. For this to be brought to bear intensifying on all fronts, I mean land and sea fronts. Can be carried out any RAID type launch some drone bombers at some object of type of warehouses. It’s like a version. It is quite possible the attacks, because today due to the fact that Russia for many years has created a network of agents and has special capabilities for special operations, such danger is great. But all this is subordinated to one purpose – the promotion of Pro-Russian politicians, the Pro-Russian candidates for the highest positions. I doubt that today some explicitly Pro-Russian candidate, such as the opposition bloc, has the ability to reach the second round of presidential elections. But to some serious opportunities in order to strengthen Parliament and broaden your Bastion of influence in the Ukrainian society — Yes, this is possible. Russia will spare no resources.
One of the aspects that is run now, is attracting business with Russia Industrialists, Ukrainian middle and a more or less large business. Not the largest, because the largest defined, namely, medium and large business will be involved on good terms. Is outbidding the brain. I can cite a few examples. For example, we have the Cherkassy factory “Photoprylad” has been creating sights for military equipment. There is a very precise optics, exact thing. I just did cherkaschanin, and, according to my sources, about 30% of the strongest opticians who are engaged in these things, went to Russia on the best terms.
These things are definitely scary. On the one hand, we have a problem, when our talented young people trying to realize themselves somewhere in the West (in America, in Germany, in France), and some people, such as highly qualified engineers that have already taken place, they are trying the Russian side to engage. It is clear that the person responds, because the access to financial resources and material goods plays a role. I can also say, without naming names, according to the designers of aircraft. We have such a constructor could receive approximately $2000-2500 if travel, maybe a little more. And Russia offers such designer $20000-25000 and ready housing. This is a very serious challenge.
— With such amounts of Ukrainian businesses to compete obviously can’t.
— The more that Russia lost the school of aircraft construction, the establishment of military-transport aircraft, and this is the famous “Antonov” — military transport and regional passenger aircraft. In regional passenger due to Western technology, Russia has managed to catch up on all these things, and a school of military transport aircraft lost in it? Of course, Russia wants to restore threatened self-production freighters (An-124) is the largest and the best in the world, the most powerful carriers, which, incidentally, are the first military-transport aircraft, and is the second — carriers. Therefore, the threats come from all sides. I casually mention the economic and social details, and threats to go on all fronts.