Ukrainian gas a bluff that will end very soon

Украинский газовый блеф, который закончится очень и очень скоро

© RIA Novosti Maxim Blinov“Naftogaz” continues to bluff by pretending that this winter he is able to do without Russian gas, while not disrupting the heating season.The next steps in a rough game that should force Gazprom to believe that without a signed 10-year contract for the Ukrainian conditions Kiev will cease to pump Russian gas to Europe, became a published list of European campaigns, ready to supply to Ukraine fuel and modernization of the gas metering station “Hrebenyky” in the Odessa region. It supposedly will allow you to get out of Romania and Moldova up to 4 million cubic meters of gas per day. It’s a ridiculous figure when you consider that through the winter the country will be able, with underground storage of not less than 20 billion cubic meters of gas.

Despite the fact that today the Ukrainian energy Minister called the date of the next negotiations on transit in Brussels (they will tomorrow), it is obvious that as long as Kiev does not want to go with the already entrenched positions. The head of “Gazprom” Alexey Miller reiterated that a new contract is possible only at a mutual settlement of litigation. But the head of “Naftogaz” Andrey Kobelev is clearly not going to go into this matter towards Moscow. He wrote on his page on Facebook: “the Russian side proposes to “Naftogaz” to “reset” almost $3 billion on the Stockholm decision and to refuse the claim for another $12 billion besides, the Antimonopoly Committee proposed to abandon the fine, about $7 billion total — $22 billion to “understand and forgive”. Looking for and don’t find articulated in the media the offers reciprocal steps of Russia in comparable amounts. Except it looks like the “zeroing” claims”.Under such initial settings, tomorrow’s negotiations will once again end in vain. And the hour X is approaching inexorably. Previously, “Naftogaz” announced that he is quite ready for termination and transit of gas supplies from Russia. To put it mildly, is untrue. First, the so-called reverse gas from Europe — is a big sell authorship of Petro Poroshenko. Russian gas, which transferreda in Europe, just seized on the territory of Ukraine, but the document is buying this fuel from the European operators for the reverse scheme. Moreover, Kiev has managed to pay for unused services on the so-called reverse. The European campaign earn from $42 to $100 for the supply of 1 thousand cubic meters of gas to Ukraine without lifting a finger.

Second, technically, “Naftogaz” will not be able to supply gas in all settlements of Ukraine, if the pipe is blocked. The lack of transit will mean critical pressure drop in the GTS, which is the transportation of gas. And thirdly, even if Ukraine really was the pumping station to reverse the termination of deliveries to Europe will create a gas shortage in European markets, respectively, no reverse, although it’s not exist in nature. Well, the last. To scare the Russian gas giant refused to sign the transit contract is impossible in principle. Inconvenience this will create, and will result in additional costs, but Gazprom has already indicated what additional power he can use to close all of its contractual obligations. Mainly the problem will be solved by injection into the European gas network liquefied natural gas. Russian floating regasification installation “Marshal Vasilevsky” has moved from Kaliningrad to Rotterdam.But Kiev is not entirely clear on what the expectation continues to threaten and blackmail. It will last not very long. Europe that the question of providing warmth to its inhabitants in winter is much more responsible than the Ukraine does not wish to multiply the risk of dangerous bluff “Naftogaz”. At some point (which will come very soon, because the validity of the current transit contract expires 1 January 2020), the Ukrainian authorities will be very firmly and without equivocation said that it signed a transit agreement on any terms, or it will have serious credit problems. The surrender will be swift and disgraceful, bearing in mind that Ukraine intended to recover from “Gazprom” an obscene amount of money — $22 billionAndrei Babitsky

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