Some time ago there was a slight, but non-zero probability that the United States of America and the people’s Republic of China will be able to negotiate in a trade war.
This probability was an annoying pain in the overall picture of the situation, which constantly bothered me.
However, a complete misunderstanding of the mentality of the Chinese leadership, US and them (the Americans, of course) fanatical belief in their own superiority did the trick.
Conduct complex trade negotiations and at the same time to accompany it with regular statements at the highest level (Pompeo and Pence) of the “Chinese people do not want to them the rules of the CCP” or the triumphant tweets trump “Look how I’m all bent” is a, ahem, “a great mind”. It contributes to the success of the negotiations.
Not surprisingly, in the latest round of negotiations (which are actually more interested in US than China), the Chinese have put forward their conditions, which can be summarized as “you don’t introduce new tariffs, abolished most of the old, and in response we do nothing.”
That is, they don’t even offer a return to the “status quo” in the form of a mutual abolition of duties and tariffs, and demand from the Americans unilateral concessions. Actually surrender.
And trump, of course, said that for him such conditions are unacceptable. Donnie good!
Americans consistently pull down all their already fairly slim chances to keep global hegemony.
A few years ago, I was afraid that they would try to negotiate with Russia to be friends against China. Rather, they even tried. But in his inimitable cowboy style, “Hey, aphid, you’re a country gas station, cave in under us for victory over China”.
I, despite my atheism, crossed himself, and exhaled with relief.
Anatoly Wasserman the other day in conversation he mentioned his article, where he argued that the new world order will establish a common Russian-Indian-Chinese market (because globalization failed, which they certainly). Where Russia will act as a mediator between India and China, as well as largely shaping the rules of this new market.
And this, in my opinion, the best of the possible scenarios of the future.
As said Carl Gustav Jung, “Europe is a small Peninsula on the vast Asian continent.” If you have a minute, disconnect the many years of grind in us to Eurocentrism, then you will feel all the wisdom and greatness of this phrase.
And Asia is regaining his.