Washington to win in the fight for the Russian future

Победа Вашингтона в борьбе за русское будущее

© RIA Novosti, Ilya PitalevIncentive – a stick with which to urge on the donkey. Even a thin rod as the livestock necessary to drive so that she felt uncomfortable and not upremacy and move on, but at the same time to keep her bones don’t break. Very useful and technologically advanced, this Stimul our lives nothing is done without the stimulus. And always a stimulus causes some discomfort. For if so well, why bother? Man, the state, transnational Corporation or a small company beginning to strain only when the old way work anymore does not work.

We should be eternally grateful to the Americans, who decided to press “Gazprom” to the European market. And a little more grateful to the Ukrainians and the poles for what they have dared the Americans to play along. After all it was fine. Gas went to Europe, and the money to the accounts of Gazprom and the Russian budget. The EU regularly increased consumption, and Gazprom’s income.

If the Americans began insistently to convince the Europeans that dependence on a single vendor is bad, hardly anyone in Russia would reflect on the fact that “Gazprom”was at one time the only supplier of gas to the EU (the largest, with an ever-growing share, but not the only). But the EU was virtually the only major buyer of gas from Gazprom.Then it was not even the “Blue stream” to Turkey. Delivery to the Caucasus, Belarus and Moldova was relatively small. 60 billion cubic meters per year purchased by Ukraine, but she was sloppy, constantly fought, and most importantly, as the elimination of private industrial production reduced purchases. In zero Ukraine was a shortage of 40 billion cubic meters of Gazprom’s supply, and now from external sources to Kiev, it is sufficient to obtain 30 billion cubic meters of gas. In General, the EU with its ever-growing procurement (from 110 billion cubic meters in 1990 to 180 billion cubic meters in 2016) gradually became “Gazprom” it is uncontested by the buyer.

The Washington, Kiev and Warsaw did not hide not only his intention to limit the possibilities uninterrupted transit of Gazprom gas to the EU, to undermine the reputation of the Russian company as the most reliable supplier, but also the desire to chop off Gazprom’s market share is about 70 billion cubic meters (40% more they simply have no gas) in favor of LNG to the us. After the decision of the Stockholm arbitration, Gazprom has to pay Naftogaz $ 3 billion not because it is stipulated in the contract, but due to the fact that Kiev needs money, Danish tricks with the issuance of a permit for the laying of “Nord stream — 2”, the refusal (and later repentant) of Bulgaria from participation in the “South stream”, the Polish claims about the use of “Gazprom” gas pipeline “ОРАL” and other petty mischief, it became clear that the European direction becomes unreliable. Germany is not against to buy Russian gas, and further, but she did not always have enough political will not only to oppose the United States, but even time to straighten Poland. In General, one day exclusive, the buyer may give up a significant portion of purchased gas. The loss of “Gazprom”, the loss of the Russian budget, undermining the developing economic cooperation between Russia and the EU. In General, a whole bunch of trouble.

In the late 90-ies, when it became clear that problems with the Ukrainian transit system, and the EU then and all danced to the American tune, as insurance was offered two solutions:

• the construction of bypass gas pipelines (today they operate as two “Northern” and “Turkish” or “threads”);
• exit “Gazprom” on the markets of Southeast Asia (primarily Japan and China).Ukrainian, European and American “experts”, supported by part of the Russian “foreign agents” that for years have claimed that this is impossible. Then swore that the money will be “cut”, and gas pipelines will not. Then fought against the construction of pipelines from the last forces. But we are now forced to accept the existence of “flow.” Don’t know why they didn’t pay attention to the “Power of Siberia”. Then I fell into a coma after it became clear that the “Nord stream — 2” is not stopped, whether the habit of Eurocentrism, they are generally not interested in what happens behind the Urals. But the discovery of the “Power of Siberia” — nail in the coffin for the fighters of the Russian gas on the European market, and longer lasting than even the “Nord stream — 2”.

“Power of Siberia” allows to supply China with 38 billion cubic meters of gas per year. But given the created infrastructure (including GPP in sea ports) and bearing in mind the plans to start direct supplies of Russian gas (and possibly pipeline) in Japan, I will not be surprised if in ten years will operate 4 branches of “Power of Siberia” with a total capacity of up to 150 billion cubic meters. Recall that the Nord stream was built in 2010-12 (total design capacity of 55 billion cubic meters per year, peak — more than 60 billion cubic meters). And in 2020 will reach its design capacity similar to the “Nord stream — 2”. Total capacity of the two “flows” of 110 billion cubic meters per year of project (120 billion cubic meters peak), which is comparable in timing and volume with my assumptions about the prospects for the “Power of Siberia”.

But now in the Eastern direction of Russia’s capabilities are not limited to running the second December, in the pipeline. Total capacity of the existing largest UGSF in Russia today is the equivalent of 35-40 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas per year. And LNG gas can be transported, at least in Europe, at least in Australia, even in China and Japan. That is, in 2020 Russia is capable of launching into the Asian market of about 70-80 billion cubic meters of gas. In the next two years the capacity of Russian UGS should double in the next five years to triple. That is, only usable to maneuver in any direction of the liquefied gas, the country will be in the order of 100-120 billion cubic meters (assuming the equivalent pipeline). Accordingly, even if during this time will not be routed by any one additional branch of the “Power of Siberia”, Russia will be able during the year to send to Asian markets in the order of 150-160 billion cubic meters of gas. If will be laid at least one additional branch, it can go about 200 billion cubic meters (which by 2030 under favorable conditions can develop 300 billion cubic meters).Thus, the Asian direction at least the European balances, and how high this market can absorb one and a half times more gas. “Gazprom” goes from the curse of the sole buyer. The European direction ceases to be uncontested. American pressure on the Russian company sharply reduced. If Russia really will be on the delivery of 300 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Asia, in the case of regular tricks with arbitration in Moscow there is a real (now absent due to the European no alternative) possibility to listen to the loving offer to act rashly citizens and to stop the supply of gas to the EU, has not yet come to their senses (to see who will be worse).

Moreover, all these gas pipelines and gas processing plants, pipelines and refineries, railroads and highways, which are now being built across Siberia, the infrastructure for the development of local industry, the creation of dozens (and eventually hundreds) of thousands of attractive jobs. That is, the return of the population in the region, balancing Russia, not only in political but also in economic and demographic terms.

Again, if not for Washington’s stimulus, all of this would have happened. We would have continued to drive in Europe gas built under the Soviet Union pipelines, modernized them (as was proposed in 2004 to Ukraine in the framework of a tripartite consortium), finishing work would be a new thread (as I wanted to build a gas pipeline “Yamal-Europe-2”, but the project was blocked by Poland “in the interests of Ukraine”). And would remain dependent on a single buyer, and at the same time would think how to lure people in Siberia, what to offer, in addition to far Eastern hectare.

Overall, it was like the end of the great Patriotic war. Our allies, doing everything to weaken the Soviet Union, have achieved its transformation into a superpower. And now the United States of trying to weaken Russia, forced her to asymmetric response, in which Russia’s economic position was strengthened. And we have paid attention to the growing domestic oil and gas processing, allowing to master a significant portion of raw materials in Russia, sending abroad products with high added value. The great thing is the incentive.Rostislav Ishchenko

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