At the end of each year it is fashionable to speak of results, but we decided to look into the future and predict what it can bring to Ukraine and the world, reports Rus.Media.
Ukraine to 2018 – election. In 2019, the country faces presidential and parliamentary elections. So the closeness of the vote, according to forecasts of experts, will lay a deep imprint on the political situation in the country.
The upcoming election is always a great auction, a lot of activity from politicians and major scandals. “The General configuration of 2018 – increased turbulence and conflict. In the beginning of the year, obviously, Saakashvili along with supporters will attempt to conduct another attack on the government, provoking a political crisis and early elections – both parliamentary and presidential. And Saakashvili, this goal does not hide. Whether it’s him for sure, but the risks of destabilization and strengthening of conflict is” – said political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko.
However, according to experts, major political changes in 2018 Ukraine is not welcome. The Parliament is not dissolved, the government will not disband, only to fill the numerous vacant positions, and it is also the subject of a separate tender.
The opposition will not be able to agree on a single candidate in the presidential elections that will be on hand for the incumbent President. “Since the end of August, the country will begin to plummet in the presidential election campaign. Saakashvili, who cannot participate in the elections, will depart on the second plan. First will come the other pieces, is the same Yulia Tymoshenko, Anatoly Hrytsenko. Know the result of the intrigue regarding the participation in elections of Svyatoslav Vakarchuk. And Vladimir Zelensky,” – says Fesenko.
Large-scale reforms in 2018 can be expected, experts are convinced. The election period is about promises and “social reward” for the people, and reform is dangerous. Authorities have already promised a new increase in the minimum wage and pensions – in this way and will move.
A separate issue is the future of anti-corruption fight in Ukraine. At the end of 2017, with the support of Western anti-corruption authorities received a carte Blanche, that the next year with no real landings will not forgive them. Fesenko believes in 2018 will see new high profile case against top officials. Expected and courts are already open cases.
“According to Nasirova, the court has already begun. Passed in the court documents according to Martynenko. You will have time to complete is unknown. To delay the sentencing of senior officials was risky. Because in 2018 for all processes will influence the logic of presidential elections, which will take place in spring 2019. The authorities will need to show concrete results in the fight against corruption. There will have to punish someone. The degree and rigidity of sentences may vary: a real or a suspended sentence. It depends on the evidence of NABOO and the work of lawyers. But the courts will be under the pressure of public opinion, political expediency, and to justify someone of the suspects will be risky. Saakashvili was a bit risky to arrest. Because once the judge and authorities will also be in the role of the accused in aiding and abetting the corrupt officials. Therefore, the sentences will follow,” concluded Fesenko.
But the anti-corruption court in 2018 does. Even if we manage to adopt a law on anti-corruption court in the next year, the process of its formation takes a lot of time.
The war in the Donbass
The conflict in the Donbas in 2018 is completed. According to forecasts, the escalation in the first half of next year should not wait. Russia is busy with its own presidential election, and then conduct a home world Cup. To spoil this event is the strengthening of confrontation in the Donbass, the Kremlin is unlikely to want.
But in the second half of the year the situation in the Donbass may change. Moscow will certainly try to use it as a factor of instability to influence the election campaign in Ukraine.
In diplomatic terms, it is difficult to anticipate breakthroughs in the Donbass. “It is the continuation of the destruction of the Minsk format”, – said political analyst Ruslan Bortnik.
“Specifics for 2018 no. You can play the cancellation of Minsk agreements, but what in return? The answer is no. Not the kind of situation that the international community could dictate their will to Russia. Since it is impossible have to take into account Moscow in this equation, which anyway is part of the process,” says political analyst Yevgeny Magda.
In his opinion, to place peacekeepers in the Donbass in 2018, we need a very high dynamics in the UN, because it is a solution which is not accepted at one point.
“This is expected to be unprecedented in size, the mission of UN peacekeepers. Therefore, the conflict in the Donbas, the largest in Europe over the last 20 years. It must be remembered that there has accumulated so many different military vehicles that you can equip several European armies. Accordingly, the number of peacekeepers should be adequate. As of now, we balance between conservation and the emergence of a consolidated Western Russia’s proposal for settlement, which should allow Moscow to save face and at the same time to finally leave the Donbass”, – the expert believes.
The Cabinet of Ministers expects in 2018, the growth of Ukraine’s economy at 3%. Experts believe that to fulfill this forecast is realistic, it’s just the lack of growth to the current situation in the country.
The hryvnia in the budget for 2018 based on the following: 29.3 the hryvnia to the dollar – the average, 30 hryvnia per dollar at the end of the year. According to experts, to keep the exchange rate within this framework, the state is quite capable.
The problem is the payment of external debt of $ 4.3 billion, which is scheduled for next year and the termination of cooperation with the IMF. The resumption of the programme with the IMF and the next tranche is a key task for the next year. “The importance of the IMF program is largely determined by not only received money from the Fund, but also an indication that the country is going in the right direction. It is very difficult to attract strategic foreign investors in Ukraine, because they see that even the IMF is not ready to allocate new money because of the political processes that do not allow the country to develop fully,” – said economist Dmitry Churin.
American Senator John McCain believes that 2018 will be the most difficult and threatening for democracy and liberal world order over the past 70 years.
USA and Donald Trump are going to solve the problem of North Korea. From the solution, which will go to Washington, will depend on the stability of the entire world. Western press predicts that trump change Secretary Rex Tillerson. In November 2018, the U.S. will be midterm elections in the House of representatives. This is the main challenge for trump. If elections are won by Democrats, impeachment would be for the President of the United States is increasingly real prospect.
All 2018 Europe will hold in nervous anticipation of the March 2019 deadline for the agreement of London from the EU’s 27 members about the conditions of release. Representatives of the business of the British authorities to achieve clarity sooner. Meanwhile, major corporations such as HSBC and Goldman Sach, move jobs to France and Germany. The role of the business centre will shift from London to Frankfurt. Will also increase the popularity of France among investors based in London. From the British themselves, if not prompted mode, an alternative to the common market, difficulties may arise with the implementation of goods and employment. So the Albion have a referendum on leaving the EU.
Do not forget about Catalonia, the events in it will continue to boil. In the spring of 2018, elections will be held in Italy – they can lead to another increase of the degree of populism in the continent.
2018 might be the year to change entire eras of rulers. In Cuba retires the family Castro. Can change the king of Saudi Arabia. Japan is preparing for the abdication of Emperor Akihito. That’s just Vladimir Putin, unfortunately, not going anywhere. But could not.