© press-service of the President of Ukraine the Idea of some “formula Zelensky” clarifying and even modifying the Minsk agreement has been discussed for quite some time. There have been several variants of this formula. But only the 7th of December it acquired a relatively complete form, published by the telegram-channel “Resident”of Course, this publication is informal, but “Resident” is considered to be one of the channels of the Office of the President, and the contents of the published document does not contradict the statements Zelensky live show Schuster the day before (it should be noted that his interview to foreign media reports December 2, was much more radical).
Only in document 9 points, but important of them all. Pay attention to the key.
First, Zelensky agree to the amendments to the Constitution and the adoption of the law on the special status ORDO.
Recall that before he was against it strongly objected and offered to provide new rights ORDO in the framework of decentralization. However, we have noticed that if Zelensky will provide the rights, envisaged by the Minsk agreements, local governments across the country (e.g. in the field of language) that Russia, perhaps, would not object to such understanding.However, a return to the provision of special rights OGLO it does not change anything in the political sense — this is the “zrada”, which was expected from Zelensky Poroshenko. The fact that the law on the special regime of local government in ORDA and constitutional changes dragged Poroshenko, all is forgotten and tell — do not believe. Schematic installation of a new Maidan — no concessions to the federalization, and under it refers, in particular, the special status part of Donbass (just wonder why the opposition demanded Zelensky to break off diplomatic relations with the United States and Germany, who cynically violate the unitarity of the Ukrainian Federal to its prosperity). In General, it is likely that the “formula Zelensky” will be irrelevant after some time due to the lack of Zelensky.
Second, Zelensky agree not to insist on obtaining by Ukraine control of the border before the elections.
However, the assignment of whether it is hard to say, because it requires the transfer of the border under international supervision — police mission of the OSCE or the UN peacekeepers. As we know, it is not fast. Besides, Zelensky requires withdrawal from the territory ORDO of foreign troops and disarmament of illegal formations. If the first special will be no problems (the problems are with the OSCE mission, which should formalise their output), then disarmament will be a problem. Someone will have to take the weapons, put it in storage and to provide protection and, most importantly, someone will have to take on protection of a public order in a huge region with a population of almost 4 million people. In General, it will have to be very large military-police mission.
This condition requires long-term work and to begin preparations for the elections it will be possible not earlier than in a year. Thus, anonsyrovannoho the holding of local elections throughout the country in the fall of 2020 becomes unreal. It appears that this idea is introduced rather to tighten the decision of a question based on the fact that Russia will still collapse under the pressure of sanctions, which, of course, will not happen — not in a year nor in a hundred.
Thirdly, Zelensky agree on Amnesty, but what! He agreed to grant Amnesty to persons who have not participated in the fighting. That is Amnesty yuudut only those who do gne made (from what Amnesty). And what about those who with weapons in hands defended their homeland from dobrobatov and other “warriors of light” who came to Donbass to kill and Rob?However, there is another point relating to the election. In accordance with the “formula” assumes that “the right to participate in elections have the only person that do not violate the Ukrainian legislation”. It is not clear what it means “violation of Ukrainian legislation,” — anyway it broke all the inhabitants ORDO — at least those that pay taxes in national budgets that Ukraine is regarded as financing of terrorism, despite the fact that your POSTS are not according to the Ukrainian legislation terrorist organizations. It is unclear in what proportion are the restriction of suffrage and Amnesty — are amnestied persons “violating the law” or what? It is unclear what “participation in the elections — citizens of Ukraine have the active (right to choose) and passive (right to be elected) election right. It is unclear on what basis citizens of Ukraine, in principle, will be deprived of the constitutionally guaranteed right. In General, it seems that Zelensky is not against to hold local elections in ORDO without inhabitants ORDO. He expressed Schuster wish to enter into a negotiating group of people who once lived on the uncontrolled territories?
Last but not least, Zelensky is still based on the provisions had not canceled the law on de-occupation (in fairness I must say that the guarantors of the Minsk agreements “did not notice” that the law actually means the refusal of Ukraine of implementation of the agreements). This means that the internal conflict there, and therefore dialogue with the local population is not needed. Accordingly it is not necessary to agree with representatives of ORDA (now, in fact, LDNR) of the legislative acts.
Thus, the “Formula Zelensky” contradicts the basis of the Minsk agreements and its adoption will, in fact, mean the rejection of Minsk, to which the guarantors, Russia, Germany and France obviously will never agree.Vasily Stoyakin