Who in the end will choose Turkey: Russia or USA?

Кого в итоге выберет Турция: Россию или все же США?

13 November 2019, the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with U.S. President Donald trump at the White house. In the course of discussions, the parties strongly disagreed as to the purchase by Turkey of the Russian anti-aircraft missile complex s-400. The U.S. side strongly demanded that Turkey has abandoned plans associated with the s-400, what Erdogan said about the possibility of solving this issue solely through dialogue, noting the intention to maintain strategic relations with Russia.Making this statement in the U.S., Erdogan did not care about what people think of it in America, he presented it as an act of “vengeance”. The ostentatious “anti-American and Pro-Russian” position of the Turkish President was not spontaneous, but well thought out strategic decision.Erdogan’s statement was a very significant event. First, it means that the U.S. has no right to oppose the purchase of Russian missiles s-400, as Turkey develops its own defense system, and America is his protest interfere with its domestic policy, encroaches on its sovereignty and evinces distrust of his ally. Secondly, the inhabitants of the country will see that the United States put pressure on Turkey, but she did not give up. Thirdly, it serves as a hint for US: if they do not change their position, then Turkey would be the source of the threat, and the country will be forced to turn to Russia for help in ensuring their own safety. Fourth, for Russia, this means that Turkey has no plans to betray her and intends to continue the rapprochement.Sure, Erdogan’s statements had become part of his resourceful strategy, “rejecting America”, he showed them his attention, otherwise he would not go there personally. And demonstrating loyalty to Russia, he may have wished in this way to gain powerful support, to counter the attack on the United States.On the one hand, Erdogan is well aware of the strategic limits of the United States. This country will not survive the loss of its second largest partner in NATO. If the United States refuses from Turkey, she will rush to Russia, thereby strengthening its influence in the region. It would mean the end of geopolitical advantages of the United States in the middle East and a strategic defeat for NATO.On the other hand, for Turkey, both the US and Russia, in obedience to its global strategic needs, want to entice the Turkey to their side. The United States will not easily let go of Turkey, Russia it is necessary to suppress the harassment by the United States. It turns out that Erdogan’s words are just words, they do not necessarily mean actual refusal of the United States or feigned rapprochement with Russia. Such a strange behavior of Turkey is forcing the US to make concessions. However, it still remains unknown whether they will be able to implement them.Currently, it is difficult to understand whether the statement of Erdogan to complicate relations between Turkey and America, because they are in a very poor state, and the United States will be difficult to apply even more severe sanctions. If they decide to use them, Turkey will immediately rush into the arms of Russia. The US will not risk, and therefore more serious deterioration in Turkish-American relations in the near future is not expected.But one thing is certain: relations between Turkey and the United States is unlikely to normalize soon. The government trump will continue to apply in relation to that country’s policy of carrot and stick that Turkey did not want him to “change”. Erdogan will continue to balance and bargain with the United States on many issues, with the support of Russia.

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