Familiar to us the world of Western hegemony finally kicked the bucket.
The world as we know finally kicked the bucket. Public policy is no longer synonymous with balanced assessments and verified formulations. Even long allied relationship has lost any significant weight.
The US President has killed the Western concept of automatic supremacy of law over power good all other are bad, but the American Secretary of state explicitly said that untouchable and indispensable for America in the external world. Even among allies. The latter is particularly important, as it forces many to think about their future as personally, and countries.
In an interview with CNBC’s Mike Pompeo said about the readiness of the United States to apply, if necessary, the power scenario against Ankara. Although that text was repeatedly wrapped in many caveats about preference to resolve the matter peacefully, that is, through diplomatic channels, the multiple bold underlining Washington’s readiness to switch to direct hot war (!) with a NATO ally produced a bombshell.
During the day the report is not only noticed and commented on literally all the important people of the world, but perhaps the first time in history, a leading American media giant was scared of the reaction and the text from its website quietly removed. And this is a particularly important time of the incident.
The problems there are exactly three. The first is the apparent absolute stupidity of the statements of the persons holding third place in the hierarchy of the Executive branch. The fact that as of October 22, there is no need to threaten Turkey for the United States did not exist (except for the upcoming meeting of Erdogan and Putin in Sochi).
Held for five days before the meeting Pompeo Penny Erdogan was successful. The Turks accepted the American ultimatum and the attack in Syria was suspended. Moreover, “deal Pence-Erdogan” now refuse to comply with just some of the Kurdish factions within the responsibility of Washington and not in Ankara. Besides, Donald trump has already expressed satisfaction with the fact that Erdogan “has made the right choice.”
Therefore, Washington has not formally there was no reason to threaten open hostilities against Turkey. Here the conclusion is more serious than the domestic problems in the United States foreign service and so the absence of a coherent global governance strategy. Accordingly, his actions even the higher officials are beginning to wear a purely emotional and impulsive nature.
This alone is extremely bad, as it indicates the dominance of short-term goals over any long-term strategic considerations. But even worse than the other. Impulsive actions in acute emergency situations, usually immediately reveal the true composition of the basic imperatives, which are often radically different from the officially declared.
In this case we are talking about problem number two. The Secretary of state directly confirmed many fears arose about the possible allies critical of the unreliability of America as a strategic ally after the story of the betrayal of the Kurds.
The point here is not talking about some abstract international friendship among countries of the collective West. The white house just completely devalued the very concept of Alliance and as such has exposed itself as a partner whose behavior is critical to have lost predictability. Namely, it is the basis of geopolitical friendship.
After the statement Pompeo is now absolutely any country needs to understand what can be the object of direct military intervention by the us army without any apparent clear reason. Simply because because. Thus, the United States has evolved into a kind of unexploded ordnance, able at any moment to blow everything in the trash suddenly and without noticeable reason. No past or future contribution to the account is no longer going.
And even if the old allies of the US became worried about this, what I think is the same Zelensky or Lukashenko, in limitrophe importunate seeking of the location of Washington?
But significant of all is the third problem. Even the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan realized that the motives and reasons of unexpected words Pompeo are purely internal American political.
United States in the middle East, dramatically miscalculated. How and why it happened – a separate issue. Now the final result is important, but it is definitely negative. Even putting the alleged ultimatum to the Turkish Sultan for the fulfillment of allied obligations side by side with them against the Islamist radicals who fought with the Kurds, the United States actually brought to Ankara his complete surrender.
You want to take thirty kilometers bandwidth of the Kurdish lands and twirl it at his own discretion? But for God’s sake! Only let’s try to do this without bloodshed. You hold your throw your tanks for five days and we will adjust the kick up the Kurds so they meekly managed to escape for the 31-th kilometer, and not confused you under the tracks. It would be very strange if Erdogan in this case did not yield to the “strong pressures” trump.
Why America did just that – absolutely clear. To reverse the dynamics of events in the middle East could only full-scale military invasion of the US in Syria, but the Pentagon suddenly appeared adequate amount of infantry.
Attempt a massive missile strike has convincingly shown that the absolutely overwhelming superiority in the striking power of the long arm of Washington is no more. Consequently, a pair of infantry brigades on the ground can not do. Need a field army, which is to take the nowhere. In all senses. To give their soldiers the allies desire not to burn.
Kurds to go to the West Bank of the Euphrates do not want and can not physically. And the home is entrenched in government and parliamentary structures the Democrats to start another major war, especially with the risk of armed conflict with Iran and Russia, their President will not allow under any circumstances.
Hence the classical strategy: can’t stop, then lead. Not to fix the panic under the exploding shells of the Turkish artillery howitzer – to respond or not on it all the fire forces and means of the U.S. army or, on the contrary, even faster to fly to Iraq and let the Kurds understand themselves, the White house chose the least worst option available.
It may seem that he threw some of its allies for the sake of others, is more important. Who are the Kurds and the Turks, are literally co-founders of NATO, the main military force on the southern flank of the Alliance and a key staging area of the military infrastructure of the United States in the Middle East region. Besides, on the Turkish airbase still fifty American nuclear weapons stash is. What the hell, there can even be the Kurds!
But the reality is more complicated. Announcing the evacuation of the American garrison of Syria, Washington has not only betrayed the Kurds, just as he left, with no warning (!), in the Syrian field of the Union part of the French and British, also NATO partners. And most importantly, the White house has lost face in the political struggle of the internal forces in the United States, it is tendentious evaluating any actions of Donald trump permanently in the most negative colors.
Just to show her that he was “not merged”, the American President and was forced to try to give a capitulation for a strong ultimatum. It’s like a car. First, it accelerates solely on the will of the driver, but then took a hundred has the driver, if he wants to live, forced to adjust his own actions.
As a result, one forced started to pull another one. Letting the Kurds led to a clinch with Erdogan. This, in turn, is now forcing to prove their own political opponents in America, adequacy of reserves “of gunpowder in the buttocks” and the presence of the proper degree of superiority in the political madness. They say, for the sake of “let’s make America great again,” trump is ready to move in literally any, including former and current allies. If you need even tanks.
And this is the main meaning of what happened. The American establishment publicly showed his internal consent to throw in the trash all the international systems and mechanisms that emerged after 1945. All the post-war era finally ended. The world has entered a period of uncertainty that will last until the formation of something new, able to effectively replace collapsed.
Because nature abhors a vacuum. Someone somehow will still need to resolve the emerging international conflicts in attitudes, approaches and desires. Can it be otherwise? You can, only everything will look like in Libya or Somalia. Like?
But it turned out the coin and the reverse side. Despite the volume of statements about the presence of trump’s endless determination to reel in the fist anyone Faberge, the actual possibility to implement this in practice yield the desired effect.
Over the past three years America has fucked up literally wherever tried strongly to Flex its muscles. Even with the Islamic state (organization banned in Russia) things went smoothly only after the intervention in the process of VCC and SSO Russia. Before American bombing were unable even just stops the expansion of the territory controlled by the black Barmaley.
Dead Afghanistan. With a loud zilch ended the attempt of a military coup in Turkey. Ukraine actually turned into a quagmire, causing consternation among many American politicians and businessmen. And the whole thing is constantly accompanied by the assurances of the readiness of America strongly Bang, so much so that the bad guys will blow again. That’s it. In a week, a day, a couple of hours as soon as the ink on the decree dries, as soon as the presidential seal will bring from the office.
And all the way. Because there is nothing. Not in the sense of the missiles or tanks, these are still available, and in part psychological the consent of the nation to rise to the attack on the guns, and endure all the associated hardships. Its skin is more expensive. And if for this we need someone to throw, then all there do not care strongly, one.
So saying Pompeo is possible to consider the terrible graffiti on the fence, on which much of what is written, but little is anything like true. No military clashes of Turkish and American troops.
How quickly the channel has removed the text of the speech of the Secretary of state, the press service of the state Department said that the boss just misunderstood and even more erroneously with the English translated convincingly shows how much the American establishment is afraid that the “market” suddenly, it may be necessary to answer literally.
However, it’s good and bad at the same time. Well – because not only American hegemony all but actually broke the backbone of the whole structure of the Western world. It as an effective community, is no more. From this moment on there now and as someone lucky.
But this is bad, as never before in the history of the overcoming of the band period of uncertainty without direct military action. Large or small matters. The main thing that is not treated.Alexander ZapolskisAlexander Zapolskis