© AFP LUDOVIC MARIN Eeyore, considering in a puddle of reflected and critical understanding of the seen, seemed more optimistic than Vladimir Zelensky at a press conference on the results of the Paris meeting in the “Normandy format”Ukraine’s President acted like she didn’t understand how bad he lost (or not lost) in the course of negotiations, held the position of Ukraine or violated the precepts of the “party of war”.
Opening remarks Zelensky looked like a report in front of the Kiev protesters gathered beneath his office with placards of “No surrender!”. He has painstakingly listed all the “fundamental” points of the Ukrainian position, still decorated with Poroshenko and successfully blocking implementation of the Minsk agreements. While Zelensky was constantly stressed that he brought to the position of Ukraine to its negotiating partners. However, from the speeches of Macron, Merkel and Putin showed that they had in mind pretty tiresome nonsense already the second Ukrainian President.Zelensky was forced to accept that no alternative to the Minsk agreements, and “mother” of Merkel, looking for Zelenski, as unreasonable a boy, more frequently even the Russian President had listed the items on those agreements, which Ukraine must fulfill.
If you don’t consider that Zelensky has agreed to play the President of Ukraine is completely voluntary, it could be understood. He was unaware why it latched on Ukrainian Nazis, if he voiced and implements their own program is doing exactly what was done by Petro Poroshenko. It was unclear why France and Germany (like the allies of Ukraine) at all points of support of Vladimir Putin, not his. He was afraid to return to Kiev because he really doesn’t understand what is the real result just of the talks with his participation, but knows that the radical nationalists will still declare him a traitor to the interests of Ukraine.
I don’t know who in the team Zelensky six months ago, when he was elected President, decided to seek a meeting in the “Normandy format”. I can assume that this person is poorly versed in international politics and was seriously drugged Ukrainian propaganda. The environment is Zelensky and he clearly proceeded from the assumption that all would agree to meet with the new President of Ukraine (since, as they thought, partners tired of Poroshenko, and not the position of Ukraine). They believed that during the meeting Zelensky will be able to Express the need to revise the Minsk agreement signed, “Poroshenko corrupt regime”, as not corresponding to national interests of Ukraine. They were sure that France and Germany will support them, and Russia will have nowhere to go. Thus, Zelensky had to start his reign with outstanding foreign policy victories.The reality was much more prosaic than the rosy dreams frustrated by Talleyrand. Moscow reacted to the idea of meeting with indifference. The Kremlin said that to meet you, it would be something to talk about, because to pour out of a sieve tired. To the surprise of Kiev, Paris and Berlin were supported in this question of Russia. Moreover, they did not give Ukraine to quietly roll up her claim as required meeting. Kiev has been forced to advance concessions (the exchange of detained persons /though not all/, a divorce forces in three previously agreed points, preliminary approval of the final document of the meeting).
At this stage the Ukrainian opposition actively used the theme of concessions to pressure Zelensky (threatening him with new independence). It became clear that the meeting in Normandy format will be used by France, Germany and Russia to promote their (generally close) positions. Zelensky, instead of PR she was supposed to bring problems. Rather, Zelensky could use it to solve their internal problems and consolidate his power, if he’d even understand something in politics and would evaluate the situation realistically.
He would have realized that Paris, Berlin and Moscow we need to promote the implementation of Minsk. What will support him if he show his ability to resolve this issue. That, with this support, it can not only neutralize street radicals, but also significantly reduce the influence of the oligarchs on their team. Finally, the newly elected President still has a high ranking and supported by Russia, France and Germany to overthrow is very difficult, especially that the United States engaged in internecine struggle that split American elites and society — is a long time, and seriously interfere in Ukrainian Affairs at this stage Washington can’t.But Zelensky versed in politics at the level of the reprises of “95 quarter”, and it condemned him to a failed summit.
While Putin, Merkel and macron assessed the situation sensibly. They perfectly understand that with all the misery Zelensky as President, the best negotiating partner they’re from Ukraine will not receive. The next will be worse. So they tried to mix the failure Zelensky. It was said many kind words about the importance of this (useless in fact) meetings, recognition Zelensky no alternative to the Minsk agreements (which he was going to cancel) is not emphasized. Most importantly, it was stated that the next meeting will be held in four months.
Of course, in order that it really took place, Zelensky still have to do the homework. But the main thing happened, the three leaders agreed that a dialogue with Zelensky possible. It is a signal to the Ukrainian elites that the attempt to overthrow Zelensky will not be accepted by either Russia or the EU. The new government will have problems with international legitimacy, including to block its participation in international organizations (from the UN to the Council of Europe).
Three leaders of the Normandy Quartet gave Zelensky pass, gave him a sort of security letters. Only we must remember that the cardinal in “the Three Musketeers” wrote my lady of safe conduct, only to use it it failed. Will use Zelensky the support he received? I’m not sure. Judging by his unfortunate face at a press conference, he didn’t even realize how lucky he is.
I’m afraid that will not be mistaken if I say that, after returning to Ukraine, Zelensky will again begin the search for a common language with national radicals. Again, we will prove to them that he was his own that he shares their views and values. Shall swear that not a millimeter is not lost to Putin in Paris and will be surprised that it again all beat.
Not being a politician, neither in education nor the experience of previous activities, nor, finally, by vocation, Zelensky looking at rattling all around him political mechanisms with horror Mowgli, came from virgin forests in the center of the modern metropolis, full of mechanical monsters, moving and stopping, swallowing, and spit people in accordance with the kind of incomprehensible to the savage algorithm. He is afraid to take any action, as it cannot calculate its consequences.
The result Zelensky took a passive role, about the same as takes the soccer ball. During the match the ball all the time in the spotlight. But no one is worried about his fate. In case you need it at any time replace the same ball. All the punching and kicking of the ball that makes the players of both teams, the boys throwing a ball when departure out, sometimes judge, and sometimes even the audience. And it is not because someone does not love him. That’s just ball work. As an independent player Zelensky did not and never will be. This is the main result of the Paris meeting, which has not shocked the world.Rostislav Ishchenko