Why Ukraine was on the verge of demographic catastrophe

Почему Украина оказалась на грани демографической катастрофы

Why Ukraine was on the verge of demographic catastrophe
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In the construction of roads and buildings in Ukraine for the lack of work – many went abroad. Photo: Putuni for Dnepropetrovsk

Replaced the euphoria over the fact that the Ukrainian brains and working hands need Europe, it is a grim realization that in the country to work there is nobody.

Less and less

The words from the screen saver with the Ukrainian TV of the early 90s “we are 52 million” is no longer relevant. According to statistics, during the years of independence of the us was 10 million less, and this is not the limit. Experts warn that in the bright European future about the growth of the population of Ukraine should not even dream of, and level of 52 million we never reach.

Demographers explain to the population grew, for 10 women should have an average of 23-24 children, we have the half. However, “calm” experts, special occasion for panic: the birth rate in Ukraine is consistent with European trends.

However, if you take a closer look at the statistics, you can see that we all are going our own way: in no other European country the population is not declining so rapidly (see infographic).

And the thing is that if the relative fertility still possible to find soothing words and “European trends”, the situation with mortality is catastrophic.

Ahead of the rest

According to state statistics, annually in the country dies people one and a half times more than are born. For example, at the end of 2016 were born in Ukraine, 397 thousand, and died 584 thousand, while a year earlier the same statistics showed 412 thousand born, against 595 thousand dead.

In this issue, demographers are unanimous: the situation with mortality in Ukraine is catastrophic, and it is characteristic for countries with a low level of development. Accessible language and statistics to describe the so: Ukraine is dying out.

This is proven by international rankings.

In the list of countries in terms of mortality Ukraine consistently ranks in the top five States with the highest mortality rate. For comparison: the leader of the rating of Lesotho mortality is 15 per thousand population in Ukraine (according to our state statistics service) those numbers fluctuate within the limits of 14.7 and 14.9. And figures to understand the overall picture in Belarus dies 13.2 per thousand population in Poland at 10.4 in Japan and 9.8 in France and 9.3, in the United States and 8.2 in Turkey – 6. With a global average of 8.6 deaths per thousand population.

Recall that, according to UN forecasts, in the next decades, the population of Ukraine will decrease rapidly and by 2050 will be no more than 36 million people. If the expectations of international experts carried out, by mid-century the population of our country will be the smallest since 1950, when it was 37.3 million.

This gloomy situation for us with fertility and mortality is further compounded by the migration, because this demographic problem, things are no better.

On start, attention…

As you know, Ukrainians go to work in Europe by the millions. According to official data, and abroad currently employ about 5 million of our fellow citizens, and unofficial sources insist on the figure of 8 million people. The nearest neighbours continue to make steps towards Ukrainian migrant workers, to simplify the life of newcomers. In particular, the Polish government is preparing changes to the legislation that will facilitate the obtaining of work permits for Ukrainians and assist our fellow citizens in starting their own firms. In addition, the poles promised to simplify the employment procedure for Ukrainian doctors.

The footsteps went the poles and Czechs, has declared on simplifying employment procedures for Ukrainians.

Analyst Alex Kushch considers that anything surprising in the decision of the Czech Republic no: they look at the fact that for the first quarter of 2018 industrial production in Poland grew by 6.4%, and that Ukraine copes with the poles ensuring a quality workforce! So “the hunt for the Ukrainians” in the near future will only intensify.

One problem: in Ukraine, which today is experiencing an acute shortage of manpower, work will soon be absolutely no one (see the Way).

According to economist Andrew Martyniuk, according to statistics, from 2013 to 2017 the number of economically active Ukrainians aged 15 to 64 years decreased from 32 million to 29 million. But experts say, the real numbers are even sadder, and in General among the population of Ukraine economically active part of, most likely, less than 50%. An additional and very serious risk for Ukraine is to increase the number of students studying abroad.

“International experts have repeatedly predicted that the number of labour migrants from Ukraine will continue to grow, says Martyniuk. – And among potential migrant workers are a big part of the Ukrainians under the age of 35 years. Moreover: young people often try to go to “status” long-term labour migrants and do not return to Ukraine”.

Experts are almost unanimous: the staff shortages already threatening the national security of the country. The situation is not the most pleasant: Ukraine invests in training young people and then they leave millions to neighboring countries, where the willing and “in full” using their knowledge.

“The decline in population means a reduction in the number of economically active people and workers, and consumers, adds analyst GK TeleTrade Vladimir Chernobay. – A brake for the economy in General and to increase the income of people in particular. Low fertility leads to population aging, will increase the burden on the health care, social services, the relative costs of pensions.”

The saddest thing is that Ukrainians want to leave their country, and it turned into a kind of perverted national idea, summed up Oleksiy Kushch. And now the country is gradually losing both capital and people.

It is interesting that economists for a victorious government statements on the subject “wages are rising, soon all Ukrainians will return” skeptical, reminding that migration is not only an opportunity to make money. Let’s finally look truth in the eye and admit: it is also a completely different way of life. Yeah, some of it is not suitable. But, on the other hand, a lot of young people who have lived (studied or worked) in Europe for several years, I just can’t live otherwise.

Почему Украина оказалась на грани демографической катастрофы



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