Will Libya Erdogan another Syria?

Станет ли Ливия для Эрдогана еще одной Сирией?

According to some experts, diplomatic activity between Ankara and the UN recognized the national consensus government of Libya (NTC) indicates that Turkey makes unexpected maneuver in Libya.In a televised interview with state channel TRT on December 9, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suddenly announced that the signing of an agreement on military cooperation with the TNC on 27 November, together with the agreement on the delimitation of the Maritime border between Turkey and Libya gives Turkey the right to place its troops in the country “in the case of a request from the Libyan people and the national consensus government”.Erdogan also noted that if the Marshal Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan national army (LNA) and leading insurgency against the NTC with the support of Russia, Egypt and the UAE, will succeed, Libya could turn into “another Syria.” The Turkish leader said that this issue will be Central to the agenda of his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, to be held in Ankara on 8 January.A source in the security service of Turkey explained that after the meeting on 15 December in Istanbul, Erdogan and the head of the NTC by Faiz al-Sarraj, the Turkish troops began preparations for the deployment of troops in Libya. The government has instructed the military command to start on the ships and planes of the work required for the initial deployment.Now the main question is how seriously Ankara refers to the possible militarization of the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean and turning it into an armed confrontation. According to two experts in the field of national security and one energy analyst in Ankara, is a “serious, and very serious.”While it is impossible to assert with confidence that Turkey will go for direct military intervention in Libya to curb the Haftarot or to stop the advance of his troops. However, you should take into account that, according to Erdogan and his colleagues involved in the political decision-making, and also representatives of power structures, Libya increasingly resembles Syria a few years ago and they would not want to repeat the same mistakes. Based on this, Turkey should take preventive undertaking to the end to support the NTC in Libya, including military means, if necessary.Noteworthy is the fact that the close ideological ties with Erdogan of the NTC, which, in turn, is associated with the movement “Muslim brotherhood”, and geopolitical risk factors, who see the Turkish power structures in the events in the Eastern Mediterranean, mutually reinforce each other. In the past these factors against Libya contradicted each other.Moscow actively supports the Haftarot, and now Ankara must clarify the position of the United States and the European Union, primarily France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, which in recent years also demonstrate a tendency to support the head of the Libyan national army.The administration of Donald trump keeps in touch with the Haftarot, while maintaining complete silence about Turkey’s relationship with PNC. The lack of any reaction of Americans to the agreement concluded between them some uncertainty and puzzling Ankara. Take it one day United States in Alliance with Turkey against Russia and still prefer to maintain the Haftarot?This situation leads to memories of the Syrian Northern Alliance in 2014. At that time, the Obama administration, in cooperation with Turkey and Qatar launched a programme of military training and arms supply of local opposition groups to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The whole world remembers what happened.Whether Erdogan concrete actions, confirming his statement that Turkey may send troops to Libya at the request of the government of national unity? More importantly, what position in the Libyan conflict is the United States? Rather, wait for the answers to these questions will not take long.

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