Will there be impeachment trump: political and mathematical proof

Состоится ли импичмент Трампа: политические и математические расклады

The house of representatives launched an investigation to establish the existence of grounds for premature dismissal of Donald trump from the government. The main question is, what position will his party, who control the Senate and will make the final decision if impeachment proceedings will be zapominaetsya that in a conversation with the Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky , the President of the United States Donald trump was not blackmailed him with deprivation of military assistance in the event of failure to investigate the activities of the former Vice President of the United States and the most likely candidate from the Democratic party in the upcoming elections, as evidenced by the published transcript of a telephone conversation, talk of impeachment in the White house do not stop.

“As soon as I learn more and more every day, I come to the conclusion that what is happening is not an impeachment but a coup designed to wrest power from the people, their voices, their freedom, their second amendment (to the Constitution, which guarantees the right of citizens to keep and bear arms — ed.), religion, the armed forces, a wall on the border (with Mexico — ed.) and their God-given rights of the citizens of the United States of America,” trump wrote on Twitter on 1 October.

As he said in an interview with CNBC Republican majority leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell, if the House of representatives will vote for the beginning of procedure of impeachment, he’ll have no other choice but to take the issue into consideration.

Democrats and Republicans are interested in the role of Ukraine in U.S. domestic politics

On 24 September, after a closed meeting of the faction of the Democratic party, the Chairman of the house of representatives Nancy Pelosi announced the beginning of procedure of impeachment of the President and instructed six committees of the lower house of Parliament on foreign Affairs, oversight and government reform, income and expenses, financial services, legal and special Committee on intelligence to conduct its own investigation.

“The behavior of trump as President reveals the dishonorable facts relating to the violation of the President oath, which he gave when he took office, undermining national security and the integrity of our elections. This week, the President acknowledged that he spoke to the President of Ukraine to take actions that will benefit him from a political point of view,” she said.

The trump during the announcement of the impeachment was in new York, where he spoke at the UN General Assembly. The preparations for the launch of the impeachment he called the continuing “witch-hunt”.

“In our country things are better than ever, they (the Democrats — ed.) will lose the election. If she (Pelosi — ed.) will do it, they say that I will benefit in the elections. The good news is that voters understand it. That’s why I say it will be good for me in the election. But what I will say: it is bad for the country, what she (Pelosi — ed.) makes it very bad”, — said the American leader.

At least one positive thing is already there — taking advantage of the situation, trump has created a special group for protection from impeachment, to join the ranks of which any person need only make a contribution to the activities of his campaign staff in the amount of $5, $15, $20, or $45. The President of the United States — not a poor man, but to get money from others is always better than to spend their. Besides, as a rule, one who makes money becomes a consistent adherent of the system, which is financed out of pocket.

But the Republican party of the United States does not intend to sit idly by, she also has to show that his opponents in the Ukrainian dossier. 30 September, the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance Chuck Grassley and Chairman of the Committee on homeland security , Ron Johnson has sent to US attorney General William Barr a letter in which asked to provide the answer to the question, whether the Ministry of justice investigation of the relations of the election headquarters of Hillary Clinton with the Ukrainian authorities (in January 2017 the American edition of Politico wrote that the headquarters of the Democrats has been gathering information on trump and head of his campaign staff Paul Manafort with the assistance of the Embassy of Ukraine in the USA), and consultant to the National Democratic Committee and staff of the Clinton, an American of Ukrainian descent , Alexandra Chalupa has not registered as a foreign agent. In addition, Republicans require to establish the role of Joe Biden in the dismissal of the Victor from the post of General Prosecutor of Ukraine in exchange for a loan to Kiev.

As shown by the survey conducted by the Monmouth University from 23 to 29 September 1161 among the person, the idea of declaring the impeachment of trump support 44% of respondents, and 52% against. For comparison, in August, the figures were 35% and 59%, respectively. Moreover, the number of people willing to prematurely replace the President is growing among the electorate of both parties: 77% of supporters of Democrats and 9% of supporters of Republicans in September against 96% and 2% respectively.

“Yes, the support for impeachment has increased over the last week, but it is not significantly higher than at other times of the presidency of the trump” — said the head of the independent Institute of public opinion at the University’s Patrick Murray.

The procedure of impeachment and the balance of the votes

According to the U.S. Constitution, the incumbent President can be impeached for “treason, bribery, other serious crime or offense”.

The decision to initiate the procedure is taken by the House of representatives is conducting an investigation (it is now engaged, the lower house of Parliament), then its legal if the Committee finds cause, prepares the indictment. There are three General categories for presentation of impeachment: the illegal abuse of authority; behavior that is incompatible with the performance of duties or functions of office; abuse of official position for an improper purpose or for personal gain.

Despite Pelosi’s statement that the prosecution will be built around the situation in Ukraine, during the investigation of Trump may remember the aspects related to the business of his family, and also the imaginary relationship of his campaign with Russia, which spectracolor Robert Mueller for two years and never found.
The text document must be approved by the House by a simple majority of votes, that is not less than 218. It is theoretically possible, because out of 435 235 mandates belong to the Democrats.

The American media in late September, asked members of the house of representatives what they think on this issue. The result of the newspaper New York Times is: 199 Democrats, and 1 independent MP support impeachment; 87 believe that now is not the time or undecided position; not answered 148 (128 of them Republicans). Edition of the Washington Post interviewed several members of the Democratic party and found that 194 people in favor of the removal of the tramp from the post 40 — for the continuation of existing investigations, not a single person commented or his comment is “unclear.”

The final word in the Declaration of impeachment remains with the Senate (upper house of Parliament) for the abdication of officials from office need 2/3 of the votes of senators, that is at least 67, and there is a balance of forces is: 53 seats occupied by the Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 independents in coalition with the Democrats.

“We still don’t know how to pass a vote in the Senate. If the vote were held today, I think there would be a little Republican senators who were willing to support it. But this President has no friends in the Senate. He had spent 20 years working with these people. And they were angry at him on several issues. If you take only the Republicans in the Senate, they are very unhappy with the ongoing foreign policy of this President,” — said the expert of the Brookings institution Elaine was Kamerki in an interview with RIA Novosti.

If you imagine the procedure for the hearing, the role of the Prosecutor is done by members of the house of representatives, defense lawyers President, jury and sentence you, senators. The process for impeachment will be headed by the chief justice of the U.S. Supreme court John Roberts.

Even if the Parliament still approves the start of the impeachment, it does not mean that Trump will have ahead of time to pack your bags and leave the White house. Of the 45 American presidents the question of impeachment was raised against eight: the 10th President, John Tyler, 17-th President Andrew Johnson, the 31st President Herbert Hoover, the 33rd President Harry Truman, the 37th President Richard Nixon, the 40 th President Ronald Reagan, 42nd President bill Clinton the 45th President Donald trump.

Before starting the procedure ended with Andrew Johnson and bill Clinton, but the Senate acquitted, and Richard Nixon himself resigned before the start of the hearings in the upper house of Parliament.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the most votes, but, according to the American electoral system, all the decided opinion of the electoral College, and the presidential chair was occupied by Donald trump, the candidacy of which many are not taken seriously even by some Republicans. Losing the election was a serious blow to the Democrats, and they in whatever was decided to discredit the head of state. After the failure of the legend of the ubiquitous “hand of the Kremlin”, allegedly put trump in the White house, it was urgent to come up with something new. It is impossible to hesitate: before the election is 13 months, and the President’s approval rating reaches the maximum level due to the improved economic performance of States. And here is the best I turned up the inexperienced in the politics of Vladimir Zelensky to power in Ukraine, a country where the administration of Barack Obama, as he himself acknowledged, acted as an intermediary holding a coup. Accordingly, the team have done so much that to use the Ukrainian trump card against the Democrats, he told God, and ignorance Zelensky procedural matters (which is already legendary phrase “I thought they will publish only a part”) gives all the dirt on Biden on a silver platter.

Meanwhile, in the history of the impeachment of the winner goes trump, but that could change depending on decisions of Congress and John Roberts, and the human factor, as you know, most subjective.

It should be recognized that, even not having impeachment trump, a team of Democrats in Congress badly tarnished and so it is not perfect in the eyes of voters reputation.

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