Zelensky on the edge: social scientists have published data on the credibility of the new government

Зеленский на грани: социологи опубликовали данные о доверии к новой власти

© president.gov.uaMonday, November 11, media reported rating Zelensky continues to decline. It is, however, not quite. In comparison with September level of confidence actually fell, but even now, six months after the inauguration, Zelensky more trusted than Poroshenko a week after избрания11 Nov was released two respected sociological services Center. Razumkov and group Rating. The first company conducted a study on 1-7 November. We surveyed a total of 2015 people. Second October 29 — November 4, interviewed 3,000 people.

The problems of the country

According to the poll, believe that the events in the country are developing in the right direction — 37,5%, in a wrong — 35%.

Obviously, the situation here is deteriorating. In accordance with the September survey by the same company believed that things are going in the right direction, 57% in the wrong — 17%, and in accordance with the October 45 and 29%.

Assessment of the situation in the country is still positive, but the gap is already small, and it is obvious that in the near future the balance will be negative.

This negative dynamics is observed almost everywhere.

Answering the question “how has the situation in Ukraine in comparison with the beginning of 2019”, 24 positions a positive balance (i.e. exceeding the number of those who noticed changes for the better over those who think that the situation has deteriorated), there is only 8 positions — democracy, freedom of speech, defense, international image, international relations, the rights and freedoms of citizens, the position of the Ukrainian population, the attitude of citizens to authorities. And any noticeable excess (6%) is observed only on freedom of speech.

The worst situation in matters of prices and tariffs (the balance of -46%), health (-24%) and social protection (-21%).

In General, traditionally positions of power undermines the socio-economic situation, which stubbornly refuses to improve. Interestingly, the number of studied items was not the end of the conflict in the South-East.

29% of respondents believe that Ukraine is able to overcome difficulties in the coming years, and 46 per cent in the long term. In September the ratio was 41% and 40%, and was less than the number of people in principle which excludes the exit of Ukraine from crisis (6% vs. 11.5 percent).

The ratio of power

24% of respondents believe that the new government is trying to improve the situation in the country and in many ways she succeeds, and 25% of what she is trying to improve the situation in the country, but it is not possible. While 44% believe that the government is not trying to improve the situation in the country, but only simulates the efforts in this direction.

I believe that the actions of the new authorities met their timeout, 22% (in October there were 28%), did not meet the 14% and 13% nothing good from the authorities did not expect. 37% believe that to evaluate yet.

43% believe that the new government better than the previous one (in October there were 48%), 30% — the same (27%), and 12% were worse (8%).

The General attitude to the new authorities is rather positive, but a positive balance is unstable.Trust in social institutions

The level of confidence in the public authorities is quite high. In particular, the President is fully or partially trusted by 68% of respondents, the Verkhovna Rada and the Cabinet for 44%.

Note that in October the level of confidence in the President, according to the KIIS and “Rating”, was 66%, but in September it exceeded 70% (the data of the Razumkov center even reaching 79%).

Here it should also be noted that with the advent of the “servants of the people” abnormally increased credibility of the Central government. Traditional for Ukraine the situation is quite different. For example, at the end of 2018, according to the KIIS, the President of the trust 16%, government 11%, and a Parliament — 8%. The rating of the President traditionally varies in wide limits (at the end of February 2014, the trust Yanukovych was 2%, and at the end of may 2014 to Poroshenko — 64%), while the level of confidence in the government and Parliament is traditionally low.

In General, in dynamics over the last month to talk about the decline of trust to the President is impossible, it remains at a fairly high level. Moreover, supported by a high level of confidence in not respecting such institution as Parliament.

Victory Zelensky really caused significant social optimism and confidence in state government. However, the lack of positive developments in the economy threatens to undermine its position.

Among state and public institutions most trusted security forces (trust them from 70% in the case of the army, to 57.5% in the case of the border guards, and police only dipped to 40%), volunteer organizations (70%), the Church (65%), volunteer battalions (62%), the Ukrainian mass media (54%), community organizations (51%).

It should be noted that before the independence list was the head of the Church. Despite the schism, not to say that credibility has fallen. However, at the end of 2018, according to the KIIS, the Church was entrusted to only 51% of respondents.

It is curious that there is still a high level of confidence to the volunteer battalions, which actually does not exist. However, these figures show that the behavior Zelensky in the conflict over Gold was right — the attempt at a military resolution of the conflict would dearly cost him.The attitude of politicians

The level of trust in individual politicians also confirms the leading position of the President Zelensky.

In particular, Zelensky personally trust in varying degrees, 68% of the respondents, while the balance of +44%. I.e. the same as the President without naming names, but the President is fully trusted by 20% and Zelensky — 28%.

The positive balance have Dmitry Razumkov (+21%, trust it 52%; probably no exaggeration to say that the rating is kept on a Happy positive attitude to the speaker) and Oleg Sentsov (+7% trust 36%). Balance Prime Minister Alexei Goncharuk, the negative (-3%), but the level of confidence is quite high at 34%.

Worst of all is the attitude of the citizens towards Petro Poroshenko (-65%, trust 14%), Viktor Medvedchuk (-59%, trust 15%), Arsen Avakov (-53%, trust — 15,5%), Yulia Tymoshenko (-47%, confidence — 22%), Yuri Boiko (-46%, trust — 21,5%).

In General, if to judge according to this, the country is now two parties — the President Zelensky and right to the opposition, the leader of which tipped Sentsov (he, however, he has not decided whether he wants to be a politician or make movies).

Attitude to foreign political figures

The study group “Rating” provides data on the attitude of citizens of Ukraine to foreign political figures.

The leader is the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, which, in varying degrees, positive about 66% of respondents (note that Zelensky still ahead that Ukraine is not typical), followed by Angela Merkel (60%), Andrzej Duda (47%), Emanuel macron (39%), Justin Trudeau (38%), Boris Johnson (32%) and Erdogan (28%).

Only two politicians balance the negative. This is a Donald trump, which are negative 42% positive — 30%, and Vladimir Putin — 71% and 15%. The Russian leader — the only one, whose rating has changed significantly (in 2012 it had a positive stance 53% of respondents).

Insights

Despite the fact that the rating of Vladimir Zelensky is still holding at a very high level (note that, according to the latest data of Fund “Public opinion”, the level of trust to Vladimir Putin in Russia — 59%), the overall trend is negative. Social optimism that had marked the first months of the new President is gradually reduced.

The main reason for the deterioration of social well-being — the difficult socio-economic situation, especially rising prices in the absence of income growth. By the way, a high level of confidence in Lukashenka partly linked to economic prosperity of Belarus.

Important point — in these studies did not address the question of the situation of the Donbas, although it seems likely that the lack of a downgrade Zelensky is due to successful actions in this direction (divorce of forces, the preparation of the meeting in “Norman format”).
In General it is no exaggeration to say that prolonged for almost a year “honeymoon” a new President coming to an end. Zelensky is on the verge of a notable decline in rating.

However, the possibilities for stabilization of the rating situation the President has not been exhausted. Only to a small extent used resource for the prosecution of corrupt officials, can not be used by the language issue, the possible foreign policy successes, etc.

On the other hand, the government has approached the land question, which is quite specific: 68% of the Razumkov center think that the question of land market should be decided by referendum, with 63% of respondents would vote for the extension of the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land, and only 20% would vote for the introduction of a land market. In this paragraph Zelensky risks derail your rating.

However, even in the event of a downgrade Zelensky other politicians remain the worst situation. So far, the only prospective opponent looks like Oleg Sentsov. Even Svyatoslav Vakarchuk has a negative balance (-11%) and relatively low level of trust (37%). Yet the prospect of a complete change of the political elite seems uncontested.Vasily Stoyakin

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